The last week of March is shaping up to be a volatile week, with the FTX Recovery Trust set to distribute $2.2 billion to creditors on Tuesday and the key US monthly non-farm payrolls statistic due to be released on Friday, when many stock markets around the world will be closed for Good Friday.
The war in the Middle East, now in its fifth week, is also critical. The conflict has disrupted important energy and transportation infrastructure in the region, which in turn has led to higher inflation expectations and a significant shift in monetary policy expectations, Luke Deans, senior research associate at Bitwise, told CoinDesk.
“Bitcoin, a highly reflective and liquidity-sensitive asset, typically responds earlier to changes in risk appetite and has declined in price since October 2025,” Deans said. “This suggests that digital assets began to reflect tighter financial conditions earlier than many traditional risk assets.”
Global macroeconomic forces, he added, remain the main drivers of risk sentiment. While liquidity will certainly play a role, the market backdrop remains fragile given the current geopolitical uncertainty.
What to watch
(All times ET)
- Crypto
- Macro
- March 30, 9:30 pm: China NBS Manufacturing PMI for March (previously 49.0); Non-manufacturing PMI (previously 49.5)
- March 31, 5:00 am: year-on-year advance in the eurozone inflation rate for March (previously 1.9%); Basic (previously 2.4%)
- March 31, 9:00 am: US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (previously: 1.4%)
- March 31, 9:45 am: March US Chicago PMI (previous 57.7)
- March 31, 10:00 am: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (Previous 91.2)
- March 31, 10:00 am: US JOLTS job openings for February (was 6.946 million)
- March 31, 7:50 p.m.: Japan’s Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the first quarter (previous 15)
- April 1, 8:15 am: US ADP employment change for March (previous 63K)
- April 1, 10:00 am: March US ISM Manufacturing PMI (previous 52.4)
- April 2, 8:30 am: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 (formerly 210K)
- April 3, 8:30 am: US nonfarm payrolls for March estimated at 48,000 (was -92,000)
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: US unemployment rate for March estimated at 4.5% (previously 4.4%)
- April 3, 10:00 am: March US ISM Services PMI (previous 56.1)
- Earnings (estimates based on FactSet data)
- March 30: Nano Labs (NA), pre-market
symbolic events
- Governance votes and calls
- Stake DAO CRV and BAL are voting their biweekly indicator to allocate CRV and BAL inflation among various liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
- SuperRare DAO is voting to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy Grants and Network Pledge programs. Voting ends March 31.
- Aventus DAO is voting to simplify AVT issuances to a fixed daily fee, increase the node staking requirement, and replace current fees with an initial allocation of application chain tokens. Voting ends March 31.
- Unlock DAO is voting to transfer 3 ETH to its multi-signature base to exchange for USDC to cover current and future operating expenses. Voting ends April 2.
- Aavegotchi DAO is voting to elect nine multiple signers, maintain a signature threshold of 5 out of 9, and set its quarterly compensation at $1,000 paid in GHST. Voting ends April 2.
- Arbitrum DAO is voting on two proposals to transition its Code of Conduct and Procedures to living documents managed by OpCo and to upgrade to ArbOS 60 Elara. Voting ends April 2.
- SSV Network DAO is voting on two proposals to integrate ENS names for core protocol contracts to improve security against phishing and establish a minimum minimum fee for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting ends April 3.
- Lisk DAO is voting to test the Degov.ai governance platform before the Tally shutdown by executing a 0 LSK transfer. Voting ends April 7.
- Unlock
- April 1: to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
- April 2: Ethena (ENA) will unlock 2.18% of its circulating supply worth $16.05 million.
- April 6: Hyperliquid (HYPE) will unlock 2.66% of its circulating supply worth $379.31 million.
- Token releases
- March 30: BASED token generation event will occur.
- March 31 – edgeX (EDGE) token generation event will occur.
- March 31: WorldLand (WL) to list on KuCoin, Gate and others.
- April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period following the token generation event.
