Washington: Although the president of the United States, Donald Trump, has triggered Elon Musk’s plans for a new political party such as “ridiculous”, the announcement of the multimillionaire of technology underlined the threat that the former ally discontent poses to the US Republicans who defend the majorities of the document of the document.
The launch of the Musk weekend of the “América Party” occurred because Trump signed an expanding internal policy bill that the technology magnate has criticized for the estimates that the deficit will globalize.
The founder of Tesla has been light on the detail of the policy, but it is expected to sign up for a handful of chamber and the Senate in the mid -period elections next year, where the acting Republican voted for the Trump bill after preaching the tax responsibility.
“[Elon] The Musk’s America Party is a wild card that could fly the marshes in 2026, particularly for Republicans, “said political analyst Matt Shoemaker, former republican candidate for Congress and a former intelligence officer.
“With most naked in Congress, Republicans should be worried.”
Musk, the richest person in the world, had caused the idea of a new party for weeks, directing an informal social media survey in June that showed 80% support among 5.6 million respondents.
Unlike previous third parties, he would have almost unlimited resources, and a talisman with a great constituency of American young people who see him as a rebel genius and a superstar.
“The Musk brand attracts unhappy independents and voters younger and knowledgeable about technology that could otherwise break for Republicans in Swing districts,” said Shoemaker AFP.
Minor favurability than Trump
With a personal wealth estimated at $ 405 billion, Musk has already shown that he is willing to spend large in politics, lavishing $ 277 million in Trump’s 2024 campaign.
However, a more recent incursion in Wisconsin’s policy, which spent $ 20 million only to see his candidate for the Supreme Court of the State to lose easily, has underlined the limits of wealth and celebrity in politics.
And then there is the political difficulty of generating support in the American Heartland, among the voters who are not part of the “Tech Bro” bubble of Musk Silicon Valley.
The person of the year of Time 2021 magazine was loved by a wide cross section of the Americans, but saw their numbers fall after joining the Trump administration as the president in chief of the president.
The net favorability of Musk in the most recent qualification published by Nate Silver, one of the most respected American pollsters, is under water with -18.1, compared to a little less sub -archatic -6.6 for Trump.
“While you don’t want to paint with a brush too wide, the Republican Base and the Maga Movement are quite inseparable in the current political climate,” said Flavio Hickel, associate professor of Political Science at Washington College in Maryland.
“And his support for Trump has been unwavering despite the recent controversies. It is difficult to imagine any political project associated with the Musk votes of the people who approve [Donald] Trump, “he added.
History, third party registration
While multiple Republicans and Democrats have changed to independents, victories for third parties have been rare in the modern history of the United States.
The Conservative Party of the State of New York in the 1970s and the Farmer-Labour match in the 1930s are the only minor games that won seats in the Senate in the last century.
The smallest parties saw more success in the house in the early twentieth century, but they have only won a seat since the 1950s.
AFP He spoke with multiple analysts that indicated the many obstacles launched in front of the third -party candidates tried to reach the ballot in a system designed to favor the status quo.
These include minimum signature requirements, presentation rates and other specific onerous regulations of the State on age, residence and citizenship.
“Do you remember at the beginning of 2024 the so -called ‘no tags’ party that was going to draw an average course for the 2024 elections?” said veteran political strategist Matt Klink.
“They vanished epic.”
Analysts agree that winning seats in Congress can be an exaggeration, but they say that Musk can inflict pain to Trump through the transmission of vulnerable Republicans votes or throwing effective the main opponents of the president’s favorite candidates.
“The Musk party will not win seats, but it could cost the Republicans a lot,” said Evan Nierman, founder and CEO of the Public Relations of World Crisis Red Banyan.
“In the narrow districts, even a few points diverted from the right could turn control,” he added.
