Good morning Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin was hovering around $101,000 as trading began on Friday in Hong Kong, as on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant warned that market conditions have become “extremely bearish.”
In its latest weekly report, CryptoQuant said that Bitcoin’s drop below the 365-day moving average of $102,000 marked the loss of key technical and psychological support that previously defined the bottom of this bullish cycle. The firm’s Bull Score index, a composite measure of market strength, has fallen to zero for the first time since June 2022, a sign last seen before the previous bear market.
CryptoQuant added that traders’ on-chain price bands now point to possible downside targets near $72,000 if BTC fails to recover above $100,000 soon.
It also identified the region of $91,000, based on Metcalfe’s network valuation model, as the next level of structural support. “Failure to quickly recapture the 365-day moving average could trigger a much larger correction,” the firm said.
The report follows weeks of weakening fundamentals, including falling inflows, reduced network activity and flattening key on-chain valuation metrics. CryptoQuant analysts said the setup now resembles late 2021, when a similar break below the long-term average confirmed the start of a prolonged decline.
Still, this view is not universal.
In a report earlier this week titled “Defending $100,000,” Glassnode wrote that the market remains “cautious, oversold, but not yet deeply capitulated,” with 71% of the supply still in profit and unrealized losses contained to just 3.1% of the market cap.
While long-term holders are selling and ETF outflows continue, Glassnode says the current phase is a mid-cycle correction rather than the beginning of a bear market.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin fell as low as $100,420 overnight before recovering slightly to trade around $101,000 in Asian hours, extending a week-long decline that has erased nearly 7% of its value.
ETH: Ether fell to an intraday low of $3,285 before returning to $3,310 in early Asian trading, down about 2% on the day and about 13% over the past week.
Gold: Gold rebounded towards the $4,000 level on Wednesday, rising as much as 1.5% to $3,989.53 an ounce as investors sought safety amid a sell-off in global stocks, even as strong U.S. jobs data tempered expectations of further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets opened lower on Friday, following the tech-led sell-off on Wall Street as AI stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft and Palantir plunged, as investors awaited trade data from China that is expected to show weaker exports and imports.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- What DraftKings and FanDuel Prediction Market Play for the Sports Betting Business (Decrypt)
- Samourai Wallet Developer Sentenced to 5 Years in Prison for Unlicensed Money Transmission (CoinDesk)
- The Central Bank of Ireland fines Coinbase Europe $25 million for failing to comply with anti-money laundering surveillance obligations (The Block)
