In the current cryptography for advisors, André Dragosch of Bitwise Europe provides an update on the global regulatory panorama of cryptography and suggests that we can be entering a golden age for crypto.
Then, Beth Haddock of Warburton Advisers answers questions about the impact of regulatory clarity on the cryptographic market in Ask an expert.
– Sarah Morton
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Global landscape update: entering the golden era of Bitcoin and Crypto active
Much has changed in the last six months. Donald Trump took office in the United States on January 20, which was already two months ago. However, in this relatively short period of time, the new administration has introduced a wide set of positive regulatory changes in the United States, which include:
- Executive order on digital financial technology
- Establishment of a strategic bitcoin reserve and National Digital Assets Reserve
- Crypto task force formation of the SEC
- Genius law progress
- Change in the SEC application strategy
The Executive Order to create a strategic Bitcoin reserve has already established the United States as the greatest sovereign owner of Bitcoins in the world, and more purchases are expected significantly.
On the other side of the pond, the regulation of the “markets in cryptographic assets” (Mica) of the EU entered into force at the end of 2024, and should also contribute more regulatory clarity to Europe and harmonize cryptographic regulation throughout the continent.
It seems that Mica is at least three to five years ahead of American cryptographic regulation in terms of clarity, consistency and implementation. If the United States passes a comprehensive cryptographic regulation in the coming years, it could begin to close the gap, but from now on, Mica is significantly ahead of providing legal certainty for cryptographic assets in Europe, which could be an important driver for institutional adoption throughout the continent.
The ECB also has just revealed that it will present the Digital CBDC euro in October of this year, long before planned. It is rumored that the digital euro uses public blockchains such as Ethereum, which could significantly boost Ethereum’s activity in the chain.
It seems that Bitcoin and other cryptographic assets are entering the main current.
That said, the policies of the new Trump administration have done little to create certainty in the financial markets. In fact, the uncertainty of the United States economic policy has increased to the highest level from the COVID-19 recession in 2020 due to the increase in commercial tensions and employment cuts related to the government.
The fears of recession of the United States are back at the table. According to the Betting Website based on Polymarket cryptography, the probability of a United States recession in 2025 has already increased to 41%. The last forecast of the Atlanta Fed also estimates that the last GDP growth numbers for the first quarter of 2025 are at -1.8% quarter to quarter.
Employment cuts in the United States in February have shot at the highest level since the Covid recession.
While all this has certainly weighed at risk assets worldwide, including Bitcoin and cryptography assets, the data is also creating a positive backdrop through the weakness renewed in dollars and the increase in the expectations of reduction of Fed fees.
Global Money Supply, already close to the new maximums of all time, is accelerating again, which is a good omen for the few cryptography assets such as Bitcoin. Bitcoin generally tends to prosper in weak dollar environments where the global growth of the money supply is accelerating.
There is also a growing probability that cryptographic assets can be decoupling from traditional financial markets given idiosyncratic factors such as the lagging effect of half of half of Bitcoin and the continuous supply deficit in exchanges. Structural entries in the US Bitcoin ETF. And the continuous purchases of corporations around the world should continue to contribute to this generalized supply deficit. It is very likely that these factors continue to provide a tail wind for cryptography assets in the coming months, regardless of the macro environment.
In any case, the renewed perspectives of a decisive change in monetary policy amid the concerns of global growth, together with the shortage of generalized supply, could boost the next wave of adoption and catapult cryptographic assets in the main current.
It seems that the golden era of Bitcoin and Crypto assets is starting.
–André Dragosch, Head of Research – Europe, Bitwise
Ask an expert
P: With the change in the leadership of the SEC, should companies expect a favorable regulatory environment or are there new risks for those who need to prepare?
TO: The change of the SEC of the regulation for compliance and the formation of the cryptographic workforce indicates a change in the approach, instead of a movement towards lax protection against fraud and theft. Consumer protection, market integrity and cybersecurity remain key application areas. Companies must focus on transparency and fair treatment to align with expectations. In addition, as we have seen with Memecoins, it is likely that collective lawsuit lawyers and state regulators fill the gaps in federal supervision. Market volatility will also increase the need for strong operational resistance to resist these risks.
Q. How does Genius law compare with other global regulatory frameworks such as Mica, and what does this mean for companies operating both in the United States and Europe?
TO: The Genius law differs from Mica in its approach to establishing regulation, particularly in its emphasis on global adoption and influence in US dollars. While Mica prioritizes the protection of the stable backed by the euro within the EU, it imposes restrictions on the stables not euro in certain use cases. On the contrary, the genius law, as proposed, will encourage the international use of stables backed by USD, reinforcing the role of the dollar in global payments.
For companies that operate in both markets, the provisions of reciprocity of the law could facilitate cross -border transactions and regulatory alignment with the US frameworks, potentially expanding the scope of digital assets called in dollars.
-Beth Haddock, manager and founder, Warburton advisors
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