The gold streak is starting to look less like a constant trend and more like a massive event.
The yellow metal surpassed $5,500 an ounce on Wednesday night, and at that rate, its face value increased by about $1.6 trillion in a single day, or about the size of bitcoin’s entire market capitalization.
It’s a blunt comparison that comes with fine print, since gold’s “market capitalization” is an estimate based on surface supply, not a float-adjusted stock-style measure.
But you get the mood: In the market’s version of a downgrade trade, the cash goes to the old hedge first.
The sentiment reflects that division. Gold-focused indicators are now showing “extreme greed,” while cryptocurrencies’ own fear and greed readings have been stuck in the opposite zone for much of the month.
The JM Bullion Gold Fear & Greed Index is a 0-100 sentiment indicator built from five data points: physical gold premiums, spot price volatility, social media tone, JM Bullion retail buy/sell, and Google Trends interest. Low readings suggest fear and capitulation, while high readings suggest great optimism. This is a contrary signal and not a price forecast.
Silver is also adding fuel to the precious metals narrative, with strong weekly gains and strong intraday swings looking more like a positioning squeeze than a slow accumulation story.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, still trades as a high-beta risk asset that needs clean liquidity conditions and a clear catalyst.
It hovered around $80,000, still well below October’s peak, even as metals broke down and headlines continued to fuel the “hard assets” framework. This is uncomfortable for the macro argument that many cryptocurrency investors have relied on: that bitcoin should act as digital gold when confidence in currencies and fiscal policy begins to falter.
However, the gap does not mean that the thesis is dead. Bitcoin has outperformed most assets over longer windows and can move quickly when flows return.
But the last few weeks have been a reminder that “store of value” is as much about who buys and why, as it is about narrative.
Right now, the shelter-seeking fringe buyer is choosing bars and coins (not tokens and wallets) and bitcoin is being made to prove, once again, what it’s for.
