Gold is the outstanding 2025 artist, rising more than 33%.
That is three times the gain of the Nasdaq 100 index and almost double Bitcoins (BTC) performance. In practice, that means that it now takes only 31.2 ounces of gold to buy a BTC, a measure known as the BTC-XU relationship, below the 40 ounces last December.
The metal, typically used as a refuge in times of financial stress, has been supported by the fall in the yields of government bonds in the main western economies, a reflection of the high loads of the debt, persistent inflation concerns and the deceleration of growth. These dynamics reinforce the historical gold role as a value reserve, and highlight why it could be deserved to be the reference point against which all other investments are measured.
The technical analysis shows that the BTC-XU ratio has consolidated within an large upward triangle, a bullish continuation pattern that has been formed since 2017. The final relationship of the levels reflected of 2024 viewed at the end of 2021, but since then it has been corrected in approximately 25%. The structure now points to a possible rupture at the end of the fourth quarter or early next year.
It is important to note that the previous cycles in this relationship saw severe reductions, 84% in 2019, 75% in 2020 and 78% in 2022, before new maximums were established. The current setback is much less deep, which suggests an underlying force and keeps the long -term upward case intact.
