Gold (Xau) It has risen to its highest level since April, with the prospects of greater profits such as the factor often overlooked the treasure yield curve, the gain increasing curve. This change in the bond market could also provide a boost to Bitcoin .
In the last ten days, the price of gold has increased by more than 5% to $ 3,480 per ounce, advancing closer to the record of $ 3,499 established on April 22, according to TrainingView data.
The rally coincides with a US Treasury Performance curve. (10y2y) It was extended to 61 basic points, the highest since January 2022. Meanwhile, the gap between the yields of 30 and 2 years reached 1.30%, the widest since November 2021.
This thrust has been largely driven by a faster decrease in the yield of 2 years, which fell 33 basic points to 3.62% in August, compared to a decrease less than 14 base points in the yield of 10 years, now in 4.23%. In terms of the bond market, this is known as a “bull enterprise”, where short -term bond prices increase more sharply (returns fall) than the most in the long term. ((Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields).
Ole Hansen, head of Basic Products Strategy at Saxo Bank, explained that this dynamic is positive for gold.
“For gold, lower front yields relieve the opportunity cost of keeping assets not that they are not. This change is particularly relevant to real assets administrators, many of whom have had problems, or in some cases restricted, from allocation to gold, while the financing costs of the United States were high,” said Hansen in an analysis note on Thursday.
Hansen explained that the total holdings in the ETF backed by bullion decreased by 800 tons between 2022 and 2024, since the Fed increased the rates to combat inflation, which sent shorter short -term yields.
Bitcoin is often compared to gold as a reserve of value, and like gold, it is considered a non -winning asset. Neither Bitcoin nor gold generates interest or dividends; Its value is mainly driven by the shortage, demand and perception of the market. Therefore, the decrease in the yield of two years could be considered a barter development for BTC.
Meanwhile, the relative resilience of the yonst -duration yields is attributed to the expectations of sticky inflation and other factors, which also support the Alcista in Gold and BTC.
“The US Treasury curve has become, as expected, the lowest rates today run the risk of inflating inflation later, which is bad news for the bonds,” Ing analysts said in a note to customers on Friday.
Hansen explained that much of the relative resistance in the 10 -year yield comes from Breakevens inflation, currently by around 2.45%, and the rest represents real performance.
“[It] The signs that investors require greater compensation for tax risks and the possible political interference with monetary policy. This environment generally supports gold as an inflation coverage and a safeguard against policy credibility concerns, “Hansen said.
The nominal performance consists of two components: first, the inflation balance, which reflects the expectation of the average inflation market on the maturity of the bonus. This portion of performance compensates for loss of purchasing power due to inflation. The second component is the real performance, which represents the additional compensation that buyers demand beyond inflation.
The start of bulls is bassist for stocks
Historically, gold and gold miners have been among the best results during prolonged bull entrepreneurship periods in the performance curve, according to the analysis of perspectives. On the contrary, actions tend to have a lower performance in these environments.
In general, Bitcoin is in an intriguing position, given its dual nature as an emerging technology that often moves with Nasdaq, while sharing gold qualities as a value reserve.
Read more: Red September? Bitcoin runs the risk of sliding to $ 100K after 6% monthly drop
