The calm in the oil market after the American air attack in the nuclear sites of Iran has reduced the forecasts of the bears that predicted a sliding in the price of Bitcoin
. With this in mind, merchants can look at the main events of the week that the markets could affect.
It is likely that the testimony of semiannual monetary policy of the president of the Jerome Powell Federal Reserve to Congress is the main event.
Powell will probably be questioned by the members of the Republican party for not reducing interest rates and “costing hundreds of billions of dollars to the country,” as President Donald Trump said in his real social publications. However, Powell is expected to reiterate the independence of the Fed and the data dependent for the rates.
The merchants will closely observe the Powell version on the trajectory of the interest rate, given the context of the recent comments of the governor of the Fed, Christopher Waller, designated by Trump that interest rates could be reduced in July.
“With the market price of future inflation well anchored, the first emerging cracks in the labor market and housing activity, obviously weak, there are reasons for the Fed X. in X.
The suggestions of deception could cause more risks in the financial markets, with a good contour for BTC, which has remained mainly above $ 100,000 along the recent climb of conflict in the Middle East.
Markets expect the Fed to deliver two 25 basic points cuts this year, but the shot is not unanimous/
“We continue to think that the clarity about the history of inflation, whether the tariffs are a unique price shock or if they cause more sustained inflation pressures, it may not come before the December FOMC meeting, which means that we will only see a tariff cutting this year,” Ing analysts said in a note for customers on Friday. “However, if the labor market continues to weaken, that can be a 50 pb cut.”
Central PCE
In the Data Front, the Personal Consumer Expenses Price (PCE) (PCE) index, the Fed’s favorite inflation measure, scheduled for its launch on Friday, is the launch of Marquee.
According to Pepperstone, the consensus is that the data show an increase of 0.1% month by month in May, resulting in an annualized growth rate of 2.6% and an annualized rate of three months of 1.6%.
The expectations of a benign increase of 0.1% support the betting bets of the feed rate; However, according to ING, the inflationary impact of Trump’s tariffs enters July is expected.
Trump’s 90 -day pause on reciprocal rates, announced in early April, will expire on July 9, after which heavy tariffs on the ‘Day of Liberation’ take effect.
Until now, the president has made an agreement with the United Kingdom and announced a commercial framework with China. Beijing has not yet signed the agreement and the European Union remains calm.
Iran’s tensions have not yet finished
While the oil market is calm for now, Iran could inflict damage even without closing the hormuz narrow, a commercial route that transports approximately one fifth of the world’s oil.
By constantly threatening the closure of the Strait, Iran could increase shipping insurance costs, which finally adds to oil prices.
The cost of ensuring a ship for the trip through the hormuz narrow has already increased from 20 cents per barrel to 80, said a report by South China Morning Post, citing the Xclusiv Shipbrokers, based in Athens.
“By planting enough belief so that this key logistics channel can interrupt, maritime costs could increase to the point that it would have a significant impact on the supply of crude and gas,” Weston said.
