Silent descent marks Pakistan’s transformation from a water-stressed land to one on the brink of water scarcity
Experts fear that the land in Pakistan is drying up as the country’s per capita water availability has fallen from about 5,000 cubic meters at the time of independence to less than 1,000 today. This silent descent marks its passage from a water-stressed nation to a water-scarce nation, where the relentless thirst for groundwater exceeds nature’s power to restore it.
This warning came during a seminar titled ‘Pakistan’s groundwater crisis: policy lessons and a framework for sustainable resource use’. The seminar was organized by the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) in collaboration with the RASTA initiative of the Planning Commission.
The session featured Nazam Maqbool, Social Scientist and Project Director at RASTA, as the keynote speaker, and was moderated by Dr. Muhammad Faisal Ali, Researcher at PIDE.
Dr. Faisal Ali highlighted Pakistan’s rapid and worrying journey from a water-scarce country to a water-scarce country. “Per capita water availability has fallen from more than 5,000 cubic meters in 1947 to less than 1,000 today,” he said. “While public debate often focuses on surface water and climate change, groundwater depletion, Pakistan’s silent lifeline, remains dangerously neglected.”
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He warned that water forms the basis of civilization and food security, and its mismanagement threatens both human and economic survival.
In his presentation, Maqbool described Pakistan as one of the driest countries in the world, receiving only 494 millimeters of rain a year. “The Indus River system provides almost 96 per cent of our total water supply, with 78 per cent originating outside Pakistan’s borders,” he noted.
He noted that Pakistan has the fourth largest aquifer in the world and is also the fourth largest user of groundwater globally. The Indus Plain alone stores nearly 400 million acre-feet of fresh water, roughly eighty times the combined capacity of all major dams. However, the country extracts around 65 cubic kilometers of groundwater annually, far exceeding its natural recharge rate of 55 cubic kilometers.
Tracing the evolution of groundwater use, Maqbool explained that the construction of canals between 1870 and 1930 under colonial rule led to widespread waterlogging and salinity. To counter this, the Salinity Control and Reclamation Project of the 1960s led to the installation of thousands of tube wells.
“What began as a recovery effort has today become overextraction,” he observed. “Electricity subsidies and drought-driven policies have encouraged unregulated drilling, which now exceeds 1.5 million wells nationwide.”
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The consequences are dire. According to Maqbool, 70 percent of the urban population and more than 80 percent of the rural population depend on unsafe drinking water sources, exposing nearly 60 million people to arsenic contamination.
More than 4.5 million hectares of land have been affected by salinity and waterlogging, particularly in Punjab and Sindh, while industrial and agricultural pollutants continue to degrade water quality.
“Pakistan now ranks second globally in terms of groundwater stress within the Indus Basin,” he said. “Lahore alone is losing three feet of groundwater every year.” Addressing governance failures, he identified the absence of a binding national groundwater law, overlapping institutional mandates, weak provincial coordination after the 18th Amendment, and chronically underfunded public services as key obstacles.
“Our current water pricing structure encourages overpumping,” he said, noting that only 24 percent of operating costs are recovered, while the water price in Punjab ($0.12 per cubic meter) remains well below the global average of $2.36.
To overcome these challenges, Maqbool proposed a seven-pillar framework for sustainable groundwater management. His plan includes the creation of a National Groundwater Council to coordinate provincial policies, the introduction of licensing and metering systems, comprehensive aquifer mapping, real-time data portals and integrated water management.
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He called for a shift in agriculture from water-intensive crops such as sugarcane and rice to less demanding, high-yielding alternatives such as pulses and oilseeds. He also advocated promoting drip and sprinkler irrigation systems and replacing blanket subsidies with performance-based incentives.
Citing international examples, he noted that Israel meets 25 percent of its water demand by reusing 90 percent of treated wastewater, while American cities such as St. Paul and Duluth have halved their water consumption through efficiency reforms.
“Pakistan must reform its pricing system, strengthen cross-border cooperation within the Indus Basin and invest in human capital through education, training and awareness,” he urged.
Concluding his speech, Maqbool stressed: “Pakistan’s groundwater crisis cannot be solved in isolation. It demands systemic reform, spanning governance, science, technology and behaviour. The government must act now to monitor, recharge and manage groundwater sustainably to secure the future of our nation.”
Summarizing the discussion, Dr. Faisal Ali emphasized that water governance must be seen not only as a resource issue but as a pillar of national stability and security. “Pakistan’s future depends on how wisely we manage the water under our feet,” he said.
