Hold ‘dry powder’ as prices swing, analyst says

bitcoin It approached $69,000 on Thursday, as the deepening conflict in Iran is spreading across the Middle East, affecting energy infrastructure and spilling over into global markets.

Oil remained the focus of the action as investors moved away from risk amid fresh headlines about attacks on energy infrastructure. Prices swung back toward $100 a barrel after a Politico report said the United States is not considering a ban on crude exports, reversing earlier declines and keeping inflation concerns alive.

That backdrop weighed on traditional markets, especially as investors began to consider that central banks might delay rate cuts or even consider rate hikes, fearful of inflation pressures stemming from an energy shock and supply disruptions. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell nearly 1% in morning trading and both hit new 2026 lows.

However, the most notable movement came from the metals. Gold fell 5% to around $4,500 an ounce, its lowest level since early February, while silver fell 6.6%, extending a sharp decline after weeks of outsized gains.

Cryptocurrencies, by comparison, seemed relatively stable. Bitcoin was last trading around $69,400, down about 2.6% on the day. Most major tokens including ether (ETH), XRP (XRP), BNB and solana (SOL), fell, but losses remained below 3%, and the broader CoinDesk 20 index was down about 2.1%.

Cryptocurrency-linked stocks also fell, although not to the same extent seen elsewhere. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) fell 1.7%, bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR) fell 2.6%, while stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) retreated 6%, giving up some ground after more than doubling in the past three weeks.

Bitcoin remains strong in risk aversion movement

The simultaneous decline in both gold and bitcoin points to broad de-risking rather than a rotation toward safe havens, said Alvin Kan, chief operating officer of Bitget Wallet. Rising energy prices are fueling inflation expectations, reinforcing an outlook for “higher for longer” interest rates and tightening liquidity, a difficult combination for risk assets, he added.

Still, bitcoin has outperformed gold by about 20% during the initial phase of the conflict with Iran, noted Wintermute trader Bryan Tan, an unusual dynamic for an asset typically treated as a riskier tech name. But the lack of follow-through above $75,000 suggests markets remain cautious and range-bound.

“When sentiment changes with every conflict headline and the correlation with oil prices is so high, staying flat is a strong position,” he said. “We are inclined to reserve dry powder until we see significant confirmation in either direction or a material change in market conditions.”

Leave a Comment

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *