Revised forecasts show slower export growth, rising imports and fiscal challenges
The International Monetary Fund has projected that Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product could reach Rs 193.63 billion by 2030, while exports are expected to rise to $46 billion, significantly less than the government’s target of $60 billion. For the next fiscal year, Pakistan’s total exports are estimated at $36.46 billion, and are expected to reach $40 billion in 2028 and approximately $43 billion in 2029.
The IMF released these revised projections as part of changes to Pakistan’s key economic indicators framework. Sources indicate that according to IMF estimates, the size of Pakistan’s GDP will increase by approximately Rs 68,000 billion cumulatively from fiscal year 2026 to 2030. However, the GDP target of Rs 129,517 billion set for the current fiscal year is unlikely to be met, and the GDP is now expected to reach approximately Rs 126,000 billion.
On tax revenue, the IMF noted that the Federal Board of Revenue is unlikely to reach a tax-to-GDP ratio of 15% even by 2030. The ratio is projected to be 11.2% in the next fiscal year and may decline to 11.1% between 2028 and 2030. The FBR is expected to collect Rs 13,979 billion in taxes this fiscal year, rising to around 21,500 billion in 2030, while non-tax revenue is projected at Rs 3,681 billion this year and could reach Rs 3,861 billion in 2030.
The IMF report also addresses the budget deficit, projecting a gradual decline from 5.1% of GDP in the current fiscal year to 3.1% in 2030. To cover the deficit, Pakistan will need approximately Rs 28,000 crore in total financing between 2026 and 2030, with around Rs 2,300 crore expected from external sources.
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Regarding public debt, the IMF warned that outstanding debt may rise to Rs 117,441 billion by 2030, although the debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to gradually decline from 72% this year to 60.7% by 2030. Interest payments are expected to increase, reaching Rs 8,251 billion in the next fiscal year, Rs 8,214 billion in 2028, 8,796 billion rupees in 2030. 2029 and 9,380 billion rupees by 2030.
The IMF also warned that while the government aims to increase the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13%, current projections suggest this target is unlikely to be achieved by 2030.
In terms of trade, the IMF forecast contrasts with the government’s statements, which estimate a deficit of 13.79 billion dollars in exports. Pakistan’s exports are now expected to reach $46 billion by 2030, compared to $60 billion previously forecast. Exports are projected to reach $36.46 billion next fiscal year, $40 billion in 2028 and $43 billion in 2029.
Imports are expected to increase significantly. The IMF projects $64 billion in imports this fiscal year, $66.86 billion in 2027, $72.9 billion in 2028, $77 billion in 2029 and $82.81 billion in 2030, representing an increase of $18.7 billion in total imports by 2030.
Sources noted that the federal government had initially set a target of achieving $60 billion in exports in three years, which was later extended to five years to achieve the $60 billion target.
