2025 is coming to a close with few crypto market stories more dramatic than the “flash crash” on October 10, when bitcoin plummeted $12,000, or nearly 10%, in minutes. The crisis triggered over $19 billion in liquidations in just 24 hours, followed by a “cascading warning” circulated by traders and a staggering $500 billion wiped from the total crypto market capitalization.
That set the stage for a prolonged decline that saw the largest cryptocurrency fall more than 30% below the peak value of $126,223 it set just six days earlier. This painful drop is likely to leave it posting the first full year loss since crypto winter 2022.
The year began on a more optimistic note, with bitcoin price predictions ranging from dreamlike fantasies to more conservative targets that, at times, seemed within reach. Then everything changed after the accident on October 10. Many predictions, from seasoned analysts to outspoken evangelists, had one thing in common: They didn’t age well.
Let’s put aside the long-term forecasts that soar to $1 billion by 2038 from Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s global head of macroeconomics, or the undated $700,000 if institutional adoption reached scale from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink. Even the most conservative estimates now seem somewhat exaggerated.
Some forecasts were not just bullish; They were explosive.
Samson Mow, CEO of bitcoin technology company Jan3, predicted in February that bitcoin would reach $1 million by the end of 2025 in a “violent” upward move fueled by the collapse of fiat currencies.
He received support from Blockstream CEO and founder Adam Back, arguably one of the most respected personalities in bitcoin, who, in April, also reportedly said he believed BTC could reach between $500,000 and $1 million by the end of 2025. His bullish thesis was fueled by ETF inflows, institutional buying, and limited supply.
He wasn’t the only one. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya also forecast $500,000 by October.
Even some of the most conservative estimates for the year-end price target surpassed the all-time high.
Among them were analysts at JPMorgan, who in early October, before the crash, raised their year-end forecast to $165,000, based on a growing acceptance of “downgrade trading,” an increase in investor demand for alternative stores of value.
Even after the crash, Michael Saylor, CEO of bitcoin treasury firm Strategy (MSTR), helped keep bulls’ hopes alive with his Oct. 28 “expectation” that BTC would cost “around $150,000 by the end of this year.” Strategy, the holder of the largest amount of bitcoins among publicly traded companies, bought another $1 billion worth of BTC on December 15, increasing its total holdings to 671,268.
Of course, they were not alone. Throughout 2025, a flood of price predictions arrived from across the crypto landscape, most of which serve only as reminders of how difficult forecasting can be.
VanEck’s digital asset research team forecast a high of $180,000 in the first quarter, more than $50,000 above the actual high. Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan had said BTC would hit $200,000 in 2025, supported by what he called “the most bullish setup in years.”
Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee repeated his forecast of $200,000 to $250,000 well into October. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, said it would “hold” in a similar range in November.
The humble truth
Only a few adjusted their expectations downward over time.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz, once a $500,000 prophet, was one of the few to publicly backpedal, saying in October that BTC would likely end the year between $120,000 and $125,000. Standard Chartered followed suit in December, cutting its target from $200,000 to $100,000.
In the end, 2025 reminded the market of an old truth: Bitcoin humbles everyone. It ignores models, breaks graphs, and ignores even the boldest calls. Some missed by inches. Others missed by miles. But almost all of them failed.
As the dust settles, the industry is once again left with charts to redraw, narratives to rewrite, and a single, undeniable conclusion: in crypto, predictions are easy to make. Being right is rare.
