Bitcoin He jumped to the fullest in more than two months when the United States government closed the operations, probably preparing the stage for a positive impulse of fiduciary liquidity.
The leading cryptocurrency has increased almost 4% in the last 24 hours, and prices briefly increase to $ 119,455 for the first time since mid -August, according to Coindesk data. Other important tokens such as ether , solarium and They have increased from 4% to 7%. The Coendesk 20 (CD20) index has increased 5% to 4,217 points.
The rally continues to a closure of the United States government on Wednesday after a deeply divided Congress prevented officials from reaching a financing agreement.
The closure could delay the report of non -agricultural payroll on Friday, the official number of monthly jobs, which would eventually prepare the scenario for a positive liquidity impulse or the expansion of liquidity in the financial system. This often results in easier access to financing, reduces the cost of loans and encourages economic growth and risk taking in financial markets.
“If ADP is a leading signal and BLS impression is delayed, the Fed is likely to deliver a 25-bp cut in October and combine it with a guide that maintains a second cut on the table in December, along with an early wink towards the quantitative adjustment of the reduction (QT). That mixture must obtain the real yield and the dollar in the dollar in the dollar in the dollar Gold.
The PRIPPED PAYROLLED Report on Wednesday painted a bleak image of the labor market, strengthening the case for continuous rates cuts by the Fed. The Central Bank reduced the rates at 25 basic points last month, while it hints an additional flexibility in the coming months.
Mena added that BTC’s pricing gain following government closure could be an indication of an imminent explosive rally.
“The message is clear: with the traditional data releases in the flow and macro uncertainty that is executed, Bitcoin remains one of the few assets that thrives when the old play book breaks. Investors should be observing this moment closely: it could mark the next higher explosive leg in cryptographic markets,” he said.
The options are cheap
A way of playing the great imminent movement, while covering, could be through the options that quote on abandonment, which seem cheap in the front-end, according to the director of derivatives of Amberdata, Greg Magadini.
“After a long ‘dry spell’ for the volatility of BTC, the closure of the United States government could finally be the catalyst to make BTC move a lot,” Magadini told Coindesk. “This, together with the Fort Account in the structure of implicit volatility terms, makes the options seem cheap.”
The Fort Account in the structure of implicit volatility term (IV), represented by an IV curve of ascending slope of short -term long -term maturities, indicates that the market expects future volatility to be significantly greater than short -term volatility.
This makes short -term options relatively cheap. Option prices are influenced by implicit volatility.
Magadini cited Long Straddle as one of the favorite strategies to play the impending volatility boom. It implies the simultaneous purchase of calling and sale options at the same exercise price and with the same expiration. The purchase option gains value when the price of the underlying asset increases, while the sales option provides protection against price yield. Together, this means that the profits of the Straddle buyer of important price movements in any direction.
“The USD is likely to see flows in the back of the closure and payroll number this week … which will guide the Fed. These catalysts could make BTC recover (such as a dollar coverage) or a shock (if the risk assets are assigned to panic),” he said, explaining Straddle’s bias.
