By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
bitcoin continues to trim around $103,000, struggling to extend Wednesday’s rally from below $100,000. The CoinDesk 20 index is up 2% in 24 hours along with 18% gains in ZEC, ICP and QNT.
Currently, the cryptocurrency market resembles a game of musical chairs: liquidity is shifting from one token to another, without any new inflows, in what Wintermute calls a “self-funded mode.”
New inflows have been slowing for months in all three channels through which capital enters the ecosystem: stablecoins, ETFs and digital asset treasuries (DATs), Wintermute said.
U.S.-listed spot ETFs, for example, have seen cumulative outflows of more than $1.5 billion in less than two weeks, and demand from treasury firms for digital assets has fallen sharply from third-quarter peaks.
Interestingly, the absence of fiat inflows occurs even as the M2 money supply in major countries continues to rise. This may be because the rise in M2, driven by fiscal spending, is intended to stimulate a global cycle of capital spending focused on technology, particularly artificial intelligence, infrastructure and boosting domestic demand.
The key question is when will liquidity start flowing again? Maybe soon, when the Fed is “entering a bubble,” as Ray Dalio described in his X post, calling it inflationary. High inflation could sustain demand for gold and gold-like assets like bitcoin. Altcoins involved in AI or those linked to fiscal stimulus recipients may also perform well, while others may struggle.
For now, traders should watch bitcoin’s interaction with its 50-week simple moving average, a crucial support for the bull market from early 2023. A strong rally here could signal new all-time highs.
In other news, cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) urged the US Treasury to ensure that its upcoming rules for the GENUIS stablecoin law do not exceed legal requirements. Decentralized exchange Lighter, which recently experienced a bot crash that pushed the price of HYPE close to $100, adopted Chainlink as its oracle partner for real-world asset derivatives.
In traditional markets, the rally in the dollar index is approaching the resistance of the August high of 100.25. A breakout could put further pressure on cryptocurrencies. Goldman Sachs said it appears increasingly likely that the U.S. Supreme Court will rule against the Trump administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, although any reductions would likely apply to smaller trading partners rather than big ones like China. Stay alert!
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- November 6, 7am: Bank of England interest rate decision. Est. 4%.
- November 6, 2 pm: decision on interest rates from the central bank of Mexico. Est. 7.25%.
- November 6, 2:30 pm: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller will give a speech on “Central Banking and the Future of Payments.” See live
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
- Nov 6: Block (XYZ), post-market, $0.64.
- Nov 6: Iren (IREN), post-market, $0.15.
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- November 6: OlympusDAO (OHM) will host a community call.
- Unlock
- Token releases
- November 6: Folks Finance (FOLKS) will list on Binance, Kraken, MEXC, BingX and others.
- November 6: UnifAI (UAI) will list on Binance, Bitrue and others.
- November 6: to list on Binance.US.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.77% as of 4 pm ET Wednesday to $102,873.60 (24 hours: +0.73%)
- ETH is down 1.58% to $2,607.45 (24 hours: +1.89%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.33% to 3,261.54 (24 hours: +1.80%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 5 Basis Points to 3.06%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0071% (7.7854% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.24% at 99.96
- Gold futures rise 0.59% to $4,016.60
- Silver futures rise 0.91% to $48.46
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 1.34% at 50,883.68
- Hang Seng closed up 2.12% at 26,485.90
- The FTSE is down 0.28% at 9,749.73
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.03% to 5,670.66
- The DJIA closed Wednesday up 0.48% at 47,311.00
- The S&P 500 closed up 0.37% at 6,796.29
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.65% at 23,499.80
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 1.09% at 30,103.48
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with an increase of 2.32% to 3,054.60
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 1.9 basis points to 4.138%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures unchanged at 6,830.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures unchanged at 25,759.50
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average unchanged at 47,432.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 60.57% (unchanged)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03291 (-0.17%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1111 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $41.97
- Total fees: 4.18 BTC / $429,396
- CME Futures Open Interest: 135,525 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 24.5 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 6.91%
Technical analysis
- BTC has penetrated the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the April-October rally.
- The next support is seen at $94,237, which is a 61.8% retracement.
- On the higher side, $116,400 is the leb
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Wednesday at $319.30 (+3.9%), -0.23% to $318.58 in pre-market
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $113.03 (+1.6%), +0.38% at $113.46
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $31.44 (+0.87%), +1.72% at $31.98
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $48.32 (+5.62%), +0.37% to $48.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $17.13 (+3.07%), -0.41% at $17.06
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $18.97 (-1.58%), -0.32% at $18.91
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $21.8 (+0.28%), +0.32% at $21.87
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $16.58 (+2.22%), unchanged from the previous market
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $62.18 (+6.4%)
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $23.24 (+0.48%)
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $255 (+3.24%), -1.13% to $252.11
- Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $28.74 (+20%), -0.84% to $28.50
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $12.13 (+3.85%), -1.15% to $11.99
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $3.67 (+5%), +1.77% to $3.74
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.85 (+5.11%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$137 million
- Accumulated net flows: $60.26 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.34 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: -$118.5 million
- Accumulated net flows: 13,910 million dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~6.61 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
- To what extent are Bitcoin traders hedging after the recent price drop below $100,000? (CoinDesk): Option interests above $40 billion in Deribit pools approach $110,000 for November and December, while demand increases on puts above $80,000, indicating deeper downside protection.
- Trump Says He Wants US to Be ‘Bitcoin Superpower,’ Cites Competition from China (CoinDesk): In a speech in Miami, the US president said his orders ended a “war on cryptocurrencies,” mentioned that cryptocurrencies help the dollar and warned that China could win if Washington stumbles.
- Another piece of Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Strategy may be falling into place (CoinDesk): With the STRC perpetual preferred stock now trading at par, Strategy may unlock a new path to acquiring bitcoin through its exchange program.
- Milei defies calls to freely float Argentine peso (Financial Times): President Javier Milei has pledged to continue market reforms, deepen ties with Donald Trump and keep the peso in a widening band through 2027, despite criticism that it inflates the exchange rate.
- Franklin Templeton Debuts Tokenized Money Market Fund in Hong Kong (CoinDesk): Franklin’s US government on-chain money fund, which uses tokenized stocks and invests in short-term Treasuries, is for professional investors, with a retail version in the works.
