Iranian crude oil has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz at a near-normal pace, even as Tehran-linked attacks on ships in the narrow waterway have decimated exports from other Gulf countries, a Reuters Review of tanker tracking data showed.
Iran has exported about 13.7 million barrels of crude oil since Israel and the United States launched attacks on the country on February 28, according to an analysis by TankerTrackers.com, a maritime intelligence company that specializes in tracking the so-called shadow fleet, a network of vessels used to transport oil and gas from countries under Western sanctions.
Ship tracking service Kpler estimated Iranian exports in the first 11 days of March were even higher, at around 16.5 million barrels.
Iran’s retaliation to Israeli and US attacks has included attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and on energy infrastructure across the Middle East, nearly paralyzing non-Iranian ship transits through the main gateway for much of the Middle East’s oil exports and forcing producers in the region to cut production.
Iran’s ability to continue exporting oil without reported interceptions contrasts sharply with what happened during the US military campaign in Venezuela, which involved a naval blockade of the Latin American nation and the seizure of vessels attempting to enter or leave Venezuelan waters.
“I am surprised, given the successful seizures of Venezuela-related vessels last December, that the United States did not initiate a similar campaign before starting this conflict, or did not do so at this time,” said David Tannenbaum, director of the consulting firm Blackstone Compliance Services.
However, U.S. efforts to stop tankers linked to Iran could trigger more attacks on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, said Next Barrel oil and shipping analyst Matias Togni.
As long as Iran moves its ships through the region, Iran has an incentive to keep the Strait of Hormuz open at least to some extent, said James Lightbourn, a shipping financier and founder of Cavalier Shipping, a maritime investment and advisory firm.
“If the United States seized the tankers, Iran would have less to lose by closing the strait completely (for example, with mines),” Lightbourn said.
US President Donald Trump’s White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment on whether Washington plans any action against Iranian oil exports.
Iranian exports maintain a similar pace to last year
Data from TankerTracker.com and Kpler indicate that Iran’s crude oil exports amounted to between 1.1 million barrels per day and 1.5 million bpd between February 28 and March 11.
The country’s average exports last year were 1.69 million bpd, according to Kpler records.
The pace could accelerate in the coming days. Several large crude oil tankers, the largest oil tankers in service, are still loading oil at Iran’s Kharg Island export hub, according to satellite images reviewed by TankerTrackers.com.
Before the February 28 attacks, Iran had increased its exports to around 2.17 million bpd in February in anticipation of Israeli-US military action, Kpler data showed. Iran’s record oil exports were around 3.79 million bpd in the week of February 16, the data showed.
Six tankers have left Iran since February 28, including the US-sanctioned Cuma, which set sail this week, according to an analysis by Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence. Two liquefied petroleum gas tankers, also subject to US sanctions, left Iran on Friday after loading cargoes. Reuters previously reported.
At least 11 million barrels of crude oil have been shipped from Iran, and four supertankers that left Iran carrying 8 million barrels arrived in waters around Singapore, a separate analysis showed.
The ships follow the same navigation pattern within Iran’s exclusive economic zone, which extends up to 24 miles and beyond local territorial limits of 12 nautical miles.
This is seen as providing the ships with a measure of protection by keeping them within Iranian waters, shipping sources said.
