bitcoin Investors, it’s time to tighten your belt.
Elliott Wave analyst and Ledn chief investment officer Jon Glover, known for his accurate market forecasts, goes against the bullish consensus with a stark warning: the bitcoin bull market that began in early 2023 appears to be over after a recent drop from $126,000 to $104,000.
Glover now foresees a sustained bear market that could push prices down to $70,000 or below, a potential drop of more than 35% from the current market rate of around $108,000.
“I firmly believe that we have completed the five-wave upward movement and are now entering a bear market that may last at least until the end of 2026,” Glover said. “I expect bitcoin to trade between $70,000 and $80,000, and possibly even less.”
Glover explained that while the possibility of Bitcoin retesting its all-time highs around $124,000 or rising slightly higher cannot be ruled out, the broader trend has now turned bearish, meaning prices are likely to drop within a few months.
The Elliott Wave Theory
Introduced by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1938, Elliott wave theory is based on the idea that the collective psychology of investors moves in predictable cycles. These cycles form a five-wave structure in the direction of the main trend, with three impulse waves and two corrective waves.
Bitcoin’s five-wave bullish pattern began in late 2022, when prices were below $20,000, and culminated with the fifth wave reaching a record high above $126,000 earlier this month.
Wave 5 was initially predicted to take prices to between $140,000 and $150,000 by the end of the year. Glover made this decision in early August against a backdrop of growing bearish concerns after a sharp drop from $120,000 to $112,000.
While prices rose as expected, momentum stalled beyond $125,000 this month, prompting Glover to warn that a repeated failure to hold above that level would weaken the bullish case. Bitcoin subsequently fell to $105,000 last week, confirming an early end to the bull run.
“Now that we have broken below $108,000, I am ready to decide if we are on the orange path on the chart below and therefore looking for a move to $145,000, or if we are on the yellow path, which would mean that we have seen the highs in this market,” Glover said. “Here’s my call: THE BITCOIN RUN IS OVER!”
The bearish outlook is consistent with bitcoin’s historical trend of peaking and then entering a bear market approximately 18 months after each halving event. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024.
Supporting Glover’s bearish sentiment, data from Amberdata shows that BTC put options quoted on Deribit, which provide downside protection, are trading at a premium compared to calls until the September 2026 expiration. This suggests that some traders are preparing for downside risks that will extend well into next year.
