Glassnode data shows that bitcoin’s “death cross,” a technical analysis term that can indicate a bearish signal, is imminent, but with a catch.
The 50-day moving average for bitcoin at $110,669 is now about to fall below the 200-day moving average at $110,459, which could trigger the death cross. This crossover is widely considered in technical analysis as a bearish signal because it reflects a weakening of short-term momentum relative to the long-term trend.
However, this can also act as a possible positive signal.
Currently, Bitcoin is down about 25% from its October all-time high of around $126,000 and this correction has been ongoing for about 41 days. Despite Death Crossing’s reputation, this would be the fourth appearance of Death Crossing since the cycle began in 2023 and each previous instance has been aligned with a major local fund.
In September 2023, bitcoin bottomed near $25,000, in August 2024, during the easing of the yen carry trade, it found support around $49,000, and then in April 2025, during uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policy, BTC bottomed below $75,000.
In the current setup, bitcoin has fallen to $94,000 and in the previous four cases the market hit its low just before the death cross formed, raising the question of whether the same pattern may be developing again.
Is this time different?
This current drop is less severe than the April correction, when bitcoin fell below $75,000 during tariff-related turmoil.
The April correction was both deeper and longer than the current correction, with Bitcoin falling about 30% from the January peak near $109,000 and spending about 79 days in a downtrend before bottoming in the first week of April. With a current sell-off of 25% and 41 days, perhaps a further decline is still possible.
However, the broader environment now includes the end of the US government shutdown on November 12. The closest comparison is the close of 2019, when bitcoin fell more than 9% five days after the government reopened on January 25, 2019.
It took until February 9, 2019 for Bitcoin to recover, approximately two weeks.
This time, bitcoin has already fallen by up to 10% since the reopening. The question now is whether the same pattern will repeat itself.
