Despite a shaky start to the day, cryptocurrencies maintained most of their overnight gains as optimism around a possible resolution to the government shutdown helped stabilize risk sentiment.
After considerable gains at the end of the weekend, bitcoin fell 1.5% at the US stock market open, but recovered to trade near $106,000 by late afternoon, regaining much of the ground lost earlier in the day. Ether fell 0.5% to just under $3,600, while Solana’s SOL rose 1.1% to $167.
Among other altcoins, XRP led gains with a 9% rise amid growing anticipation that a spot ETF could soon begin trading on US exchanges. Zcash and monero which had posted huge gains in recent weeks, cooled and fell 9% and 11%, respectively.
Cryptocurrency-related stocks also posted gains following big losses last week. Coinbase (COIN) rose 4.1%, Robinhood (HOOD) gained 4.8%, eToro (ETOR) added 9%, and Gemini (GEMI) rose 5.2%. Traditional markets also recovered, with the S&P 500 rising 1.6% and the Nasdaq gaining 2.2%.
The cryptocurrency price rally came as traders became more confident that the longest-running US government shutdown, which now extends to 39 days, could be coming to an end. A Sunday night post by Donald Trump mocking a $2,000 “dividend” financed by tariff revenues contributed to the upbeat sentiment. Checking Polymarket odds, prediction market operators now place an 86% chance of the shutdown ending between November 12 and 15.
Shutdown paralyzes crypto policymaking
Still, the shutdown has created a mixed backdrop for cryptocurrencies, argued David Nage, head of research at digital asset investment firm Arca, in a Monday note.
On the positive side, ending the lockdown could release between $150 billion and $200 billion from the Treasury General Account (TGA) into bank reserves, he said. That jolt of liquidity has historically benefited risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
But Nage also warned that the ongoing shutdown is stalling crucial legislative advances, including the CLARITY Act and the Senate’s digital asset market structure bill. With time running out before the 2026 midterm elections, a prolonged delay could leave US digital asset regulation off the table for a while, he explained.
“If comprehensive digital asset legislation is delayed until 2026 and then dies in mid-term policy, the industry will lose the regulatory clarity needed to attract institutional capital and achieve sustainable growth.”
The impact of the shutdown on crypto policy has been muted but potentially more damaging than the recent volatility in repo markets, he said. “The broader story for digital asset adoption over the next three to five years is shaping up behind the scenes… and the Banking Committee staff rooms are currently dark due to the shutdown,” Nage explained.
“If the shutdown ends in November, we can benefit from both a liquidity injection and a legislative opportunity,” he said. “If it drags out into December, the legislation could miss its chance.”
