The cryptocurrency market slowdown has been particularly hard on major US exchange Coinbase (COIN), which has seen its shares fall more than 50% since bitcoin’s early October record above $126,000, including a 27% drop in 2026 alone.
Trying to catch up with that rapid decline, JPMorgan’s Ken Worthington cut his price target on COIN to $290 from $399 ahead of the company’s fourth-quarter earnings report due after the close on Thursday.
Worthington remains a bull on the stock and his reduced target still suggests a 75% upside from COIN’s current price of $1,655.
Worthington projects adjusted EBITDA of $734 million, up from $801 million in the third quarter. That would mark a sharp decline from previous quarters, driven primarily by lower trading volumes, weaker cryptocurrency prices and slower growth in USDC stablecoin balances, he said.
Worthington estimates cryptocurrency spot trading volume of $263 billion for the quarter. It also noted lower USDC circulation, modeling stablecoin-related revenue of $312 million. Those headwinds were partially offset by a quarter of contributions from Deribit, the crypto derivatives exchange that Coinbase acquired in August.
Including Deribit, JPMorgan models total trading revenue of $1.06 billion, with Deribit contributing about $117 million on an estimated trading volume of $586 billion. In the previous quarter, the exchange reported $1 billion in trading revenue.
On the subscriptions and services side, the bank expects revenue of $670 million, below Coinbase’s previous guidance range of $710 million to $790 million, reflecting weaker crypto prices, lower staking returns, and slower USDC growth. Worthington also expects operating expenses to come in below expectations as the company controls costs.
Other sellers intervene
Barclays analyst Benjamin Budish said his estimates are about 10% below consensus on adjusted EBITDA, driven by weakening retail and blockchain rewards revenue. “We are notably lower on retail trading revenue, based on Robinhood readings, and on blockchain rewards revenue,” Budish wrote, adding that the consensus estimates may not yet fully reflect publicly available volume data.
Barclays estimates Coinbase’s trading volume at around $261 billion in the quarter. He said retail cryptocurrency volumes reported by Robinhood (HOOD), which have historically closely tracked those of Coinbase, fell about 15% quarter over quarter.
Compass Point adopted a more bearish tone. Analyst Ed Engel said he is negative on the stock in terms of earnings, expecting disappointment in the subscription and services segment. “While investors place a premium multiple on COIN’s S&S segment, we expect Q4 results to affirm that overall revenue remains tied to overall cryptocurrency prices,” Engel wrote. It also expects January trading revenue to reflect what it described as Coinbase’s weakest retail engagement since the third quarter of 2024.
Beyond the headline numbers, investors are likely to focus on commentary on trading activity in early 2026, the sustainability of USDC-related revenues, and whether newer initiatives such as Deribit and Coinbase’s futures business can significantly offset swings in crypto spot markets.
