
- The inflation of the full year also within our expected range of FY25.
- The brokerage expects inflation to average around 6-7% in fiscal year 26.
- The highest energy and tax costs could enliven inflation, they say analysts.
Pakistan consumer prices (CPI) increased 3.2% year -on -year in June, the statistics office said in line with the projection of the Ministry of Finance from 3% to 4% issued by day before.
About a month, prices increased 0.2% in June, reverting a 0.2% decrease in May.
In a note, Topline Securities said that the full year inflation of 4.49% is also within our expected range of 2000.
The rhythm of inflation, he said, has decreased from an average of 23.41% in fiscal year 200
The broker said that in the fiscal year26, he hopes that inflation will average around 6-7%.
With an inflation of 3.59% for June 2025, the real rate recorded in 650 bp, and for the real rate of the fiscal year 2016 is 400-500 bp, significantly higher than the historical average of Pakistan of 200-300bps.
“Any important deviation in the prices of the basic products of the current levels can lead to a change in inflation estimates,” the note added.
The data occurs after the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained its key interest rate without 11% changes in June.
The Central Bank said in its last monetary policy statement that inflation was expected to show some short -term volatility, but gradually stabilizes within the target range from 5% to 7%.
The figures also arrive weeks after Pakistan presented its annual budget, which included new income and subsidy cuts measures as part of the efforts to ensure a long -term loan program of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Analysts have warned that higher energy and tax costs could enliven inflation in the second half of the year.
The Pakistan stock exchange increased 2.3% in the day to close by a historical maximum of 128475.7 points, on Tuesday, the first day of the new fiscal year.