Lighter’s LIT token has not yet begun open trading, but the market has already drawn a clear line around its valuation after Tuesday’s airdrop.
Traders are divided on whether the new Ethereum-based Layer 2 decentralized exchange (DEX) governance token deserves a fully diluted valuation near $2 billion or $3 billion.
Fully diluted valuation, or FDV, estimates the total market value of a token by multiplying its price by the maximum supply possible if all tokens were issued and circulated.
Pre-market trading has put LIT near $3.20, implying an FDV of over $3 billion, according to CoinMarketCap, while prediction markets tell a more cautious story.
Recent low-float launches like Monad, EigenLayer, and Movement inflated holder valuations into the billions even as most tokens remain locked, leaving FDV to act less as an indicator of actual demand and more as a forward-looking estimate that can easily be distorted without much attention to liquidity and tokenomics.
At Polymarket, traders see roughly equal odds of LIT surpassing a fully diluted valuation of $3 billion a day after launch, while earnings expectations of $4 billion and $6 billion have faded, and market data shows those higher price targets collapsed after the October crash.
In comparison, Hyperliquid’s HYPE token debuted with an MVP of around $4.2 billion last November.
Dune data shows that Lighter has averaged around $2.7 billion in daily perpetual volume over the past week, placing it behind only Hyperliquid and Aster.
