If someone told him that stock market investors are downloading their appreciated holdings, most likely they interpret it as a sign of an imminent market recession.
However, the narrative differs in the cryptography market, where this sale indicates optimism, according to analysts that observe historical trends in the supply of long -term investors or wallets that have coins for at least 155 days or more than five months.
“According to our analysis, the acute decreases in the long -term support supply (purple line) have frequently agreed with strong manifestations of Bitcoin (white line), as seen in the Q1 and the fourth quarter of 2024. provided that the Long -term headlines continue to reduce their balances, Bitcoin is still at risk of a brief squeeze upwards, “said Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, in a report shared with Coindesk.
The total supply of these wallets has fallen to approximately 13 million BTC. According to the Glassnode analysis firm, more than 1 million BTC have changed hands during the recent price increase above $ 100,000 as the short -term merchants resorted to the distribution of the long -term holder.
“During the recent rally above $ 100K, 1.1 million BTC have been transferred from long -term long -term holders, which represents an impressive demand entry to absorb this offer at prices exceeding $ 90k,” he said Glassnode in its weekly report.
However, keep in mind that the rhythm to which the long -term holders sell has slowed down. This deceleration is evident from the monthly exchange rate in the long -term holder’s supply ratio. It is no longer as harmful as at the beginning of this month, indicating a more measured approach for the sale of long -term holders.
Exchange balance slices
The BTC number maintained in the wallets linked to centralized exchanges has decreased to 2.7 million BTC of more than three million approximately six months ago, according to Glassnode.
The BTC exodus of exchanges, which results in a reduced availability of fast sales coins, is widely seen as an upward indicator. However, the dynamics have changed since the spot ETFs debut in the United States a year ago.
“While many interpret this as a supply shock form caused by a mass of coins removed by individual investors, potentially creating the pressure of upward prices, we believe that most of this decrease comes from the currencies that reorganize ETF wallets administered by custodians such as Coinbase “. Glassnode said.
In other words, these currencies have ended in an ETF, an alternative investment vehicle that is liquid or active and can be purchased and sell as fast as real currencies.
According to Glassnode, the adjusted exchange balance for coins that have moved to alternative vehicles is more than 3 million BTC.
