Good morning, Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
Bitcoin is sliding into a weaker market structure as the steady supply that supported prices earlier in the year gives way to diminished demand and defensive positioning.
In a recent note, CryptoQuant wrote that the core demand wave of the cycle has passed, with ETF accumulation slowing, Treasury company purchases evaporating, and Strategy purchases falling to their lowest levels of the year.
This does not imply an imminent collapse, CryptoQuant argues, but it does mean that upside potential is increasingly limited, with rallies likely to stall below the 365-day moving average until a new wave of demand emerges.
Polymarket operators are positioning themselves around this weakness, assigning the highest probability to a movement towards 85,000 and almost giving no importance to bullish scenarios.
Glassnode adds that short-term holders are posting losses at their fastest pace since the FTX period, ETF flows remain negative, and derivatives markets have shifted into full risk-off mode, with options traders loading up on puts and increasing implied volatility.
In that context, Glassnode points to Active Investor’s cost base near $88,600 as the market’s next critical test.
A sustained move below this level would trigger losses for recent active investors for the first time this cycle and would be a sign that bearish momentum is taking control. The next support is at the true market average, around $82,000, which Glassnode describes as the point where a mild bearish phase could give way to a bearish market structure similar to that of 2022 and 2023.
The coming weeks will show whether buyers can reassert themselves or if support wanes and the slowdown becomes more entrenched.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading around $92,000 after briefly falling below $90,000 earlier in the week, leaving the market on tenterhooks as it searches for support.
ETH: Ether is trading around $3,038, falling modestly on the day as it continues to follow Bitcoin’s broader defensive tone.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,067 after hitting an intraday high of $4,132, as risk aversion sweeps markets.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Thursday as a strong Nvidia earnings report boosted chip stocks, lifting the Nikkei 225 by 3.7%.
Elsewhere in Crypto:
- Samourai Wallet Co-Founder Bill Hill Sentenced to 4 Years in Prison for Unlicensed Money Transmission (CoinDesk)
- New Hampshire Unveils $100 Million Bitcoin-Collateralized Municipal Bond (Decrypt)
- Bullish Moves to Earn Q3 Profits After Adding Options and Spot Trading in the US (CoinDesk)
