Bitcoin (BTC) The sliding in September comes with an awkward reminder for merchants that history is not on its side.
The largest token for market capitalization has decreased by nine of the last 14 months of September, with an average monthly loss of around 12%.
This seasonality becomes great again in 2025. Bitcoin opened the week about $ 110,000, its weakest level in almost two months, and the total capitalization of the cryptography market has reduced to $ 3.74 billion, reaching a minimum of three weeks.
BTC prices have been stable in the last 24 hours, with Solana Sol (SUN) 4%leadership gains, XRP Publishing 1% and Cardano’s Ada (ADA) 1.5%increase.
Merchants say that the combination of macro uncertainty, fragile feeling and thinning volumes leaves little space for them to go to what has historically been the most difficult month in the calendar.
The technicians do not inspire much confidence either. Alex Kuptsikevich, FXPro Market Chief Analyst, said the broader capitalization table “continues to register a lower series of minimums, indicating a downward trend.”
He pointed out Bitcoin’s failure to maintain $ 112,000 and warned of “a greater decrease towards the $ 105,000 area”, a level that has long acted as a support before the psychological barrier of $ 100,000.
The cryptographic fear index has turned around 40, the lowest since April, suggesting that the nerves are increasing before they are completely broken.
In 2017, Bitcoin fell almost 8% in September despite the euphoric demonstration that led him to $ 20,000 later that year. In 2019, Token lost almost 14% in September, foreshadowing months of lateral action.
Even in the last cycle, September 2021 and 2022 saw a strong reduction, reminding merchants that drain liquidity and macro nerves often coincide with the end of summer.
This year, those winds against are visible in ETF flows. After a constant accumulation until much of August, Spot Bitcoin ETF in the US. UU. They registered net exits of $ 440 million last week.
Ether Etfs, which was launched last year, recorded more than $ 1 billion in tickets, marking a weird bright point but also a sign that capital can be turning instead of growing in general.
Meanwhile, cryptocant data show that ETF Spot have now absorbed more than 1.3 million BTC, almost 6% of the total supply, placing them along with the largest exchanges for market share.
The risk is that support levels break before the macro relief arrives. It is expected that non -agricultural payroll expiring on Friday show only 45,000 new jobs, confirming a deceleration of the US labor market.
A soft impression would strengthen the case for a September rate cut of the Fed, a catalyst that could put the feeling to risk again. Until then, merchants are paying for the hedges down.
The options data show the strongest demand in weeks, with a firmly bassing bias, Kuptsikevich of FXPro said, asking for caution among the merchants of the days.
