Is crypto winter coming? It is already more than established for bitcoin treasury companies (BTCTC).
Aiming to replicate the once-in-a-generation success of Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy (MSTR) and perhaps taking advantage of a US regulatory regime that is willing to look the other way in the face of questionable public offerings, a wave of crypto asset treasury companies went public in 2025.
The result has been massive losses for investors almost across the board. And while the price of bitcoin falls In the last 11 days (yes, it was only on Monday, October 3 when BTC hit a high of $126,000) by the kill, BTCTC stock prices were falling long before that.
If we look at a small group of BTCTC, the losses in the last three months range from “only” 38% in the case of Strategy to 94% in KindlyMD (NAKA).
‘Stable boys’
When his TerraUSD algorithmic stablecoin began decoupling from the dollar in May 2022, Do Kwon tweeted: “Deploying more capital, stable guys.” Within days, TerraUSD, which had previously had a market capitalization of around $50 billion, became worthless.
That social media post has become a meme for the crypto community whenever things start to look questionable for the markets or any company.
This is not intended to suggest any level of comparable cunning or criminality, nor to predict future BTCTC, But some of the executive teams at these firms have recently been very busy on social media defending their business models.
Simon Gerovich, CEO of Japan’s Metaplanet (MTPLF), which remains higher since adopting the BTCTC strategy in 2024 but has seen a 70% drop in share price in the past three months, attempted on Friday to explain why a shift to issuance of preferred shares will generate strong returns for shareholders.
“When bitcoin appreciates faster than the cost of capital, that difference becomes higher bitcoin per share and the benefit accrues to common shareholders,” he said in a post on X.
The tl;dr: Metaplanet investors will benefit if “the number goes up.”
KindlyMD CEO David Bailey, whose 94% stock drop over the past three months has left the stock price below $1 and in danger of being delisted from the Nasdaq, found it necessary Thursday to deny claims by an X poster that his company had “FTX vibes.”
“In no way is there any similarity to FTX,” Bailey said. “We are a regulated and registered security that buys and holds bitcoins.” When the CEO of a publicly traded company has to respond to a random sign to say “we’re not FTX,” it’s safe to say the plot may have been lost.
Then there was Strive (ASST) CIO Ben Werkman, whose share price decline nearly matched NAKA’s and also faces delisting danger, trying to explain the difficulties and a way forward.
“Now the exuberance is gone and many companies are now positioned with their balance sheets intact to be able to move on to the second phase of the journey,” Werkman said in an extremely long post for X.
“Achieving scale is difficult, but many companies now have it,” he continued. “Valuations are reaching what I would consider deep value territory (based solely on balance sheets), and these are the valuations that many investors will place their long-term bets on.”
Werkman went on to recall that many assumed the Saylor (then MicroStrategy) strategy would hit zero in crypto winter 2022. Those who dispelled that assumption were rewarded with mind-blowing returns. MSTR was trading at around $30 when Do Kwon made his “stable boys” post. Even after its recent drop, the stock is still at $290, or nearly 10 bags over the past three and a half years.
Whatever the future holds for BTCTC, one thing is certain: the vibes are anything but positive right now. If any of the newcomers are to mirror the massive success of the pioneer’s strategy, it could require much more than a simple increase in the price of bitcoin.
This opinion piece is part of the CoinDesk article. Bitcoin Treasury Bond Theme Week, sponsored by Genius Group.
