- Analyst firm Context has shared sales data for the fourth quarter of 2024
- Copilot+ PCs didn’t see much growth, despite price cuts
- More affordable Arm-based Copilot+ PCs likely to help Microsoft’s cause in 2025
Microsoft and its manufacturing partners reportedly substantially reduced prices for Copilot+ PCs late last year, but the cuts did not spur sales, according to one analyst firm, which could be a concern for the future.
The Register highlighted the move apparently made in the last quarter of 2024, in which these AI laptops were reduced by 10%, based on the average selling price of distributors in Europe.
Marie-Christine Pygott, senior analyst at Context, told The Register: “While price reductions helped spur some interest in the fourth quarter, the value proposition of these devices [Copilot+ PCs] “It still needs to be communicated more effectively to users.”
On a more positive note, Pygott added: “As the concept matures, awareness grows and a greater range of pricing is addressed, we expect adoption rates to increase in 2025.”
The analyst tells us that, more broadly, PC sales in Europe (for desktops and tablets, as well as laptops) saw solid growth in the final quarter of last year, with sales in December increasing by 7% year-on-year. Actually.
During the quarter, AI-enabled laptops saw their adoption rate grow to 32%, up from 22% in the third quarter, but despite the upward movement, that didn’t match some forecasts (for 40% growth). ).
However, the definition of an AI-enabled laptop is any device with an NPU to power AI workloads, no matter how strong that NPU is. Copilot+ PCs are a separate category within that, requiring a powerful NPU of at least 40 TOPS, and in that subdivision, growth was much weaker, going from 3% to just 5%, according to Context.
Pygott told The Register that the leading laptops in the world of AI PCs were Apple’s MacBooks (in Europe and the UK), but Lenovo and HP were making big gains in market share (we should keep in mind the direct sales data from distributors, not retail sales).
While Microsoft’s Surface devices are in first position among the Copilot+ PC subcategory, unsurprisingly considering how good these laptops are (the latest Surface Laptop is not only a great Copilot+ device, but also our best laptop in general, in fact).
Analysis: Prices and perception
We should be cautious with just one set of analyst numbers, but the sales outlook presented here looks pretty weak. What to do then for Microsoft and its great Copilot+ PC project?
As Pygott points out, there are two obvious problems. Firstly, these devices were too expensive at launch, and secondly, people don’t really understand what the AI in an ‘AI PC’ brings to the whole experience (rightly so, and we’ll come back to that).
As Pygott observes: “These [Copilot+ PCs] They are currently in the premium price range, but their added value is not always clear to users. “We think this will change as users become clearer about what these PCs can do and how the way they use a PC will change with AI, but it will take some time.”
As for cost issues, as Pygott tells us, “a wider price range is being addressed,” which refers to the progress made in incorporating cheaper Snapdragon X chips. This will facilitate the launch of more affordable Arm-based Copilot+ PCs (and Arm CPUs are still the majority for these devices).
First, the 8-core Snapdragon This promises to bring the cost of these AI laptops down to around $600.
The evolutions of these Arm-based laptops may reduce the Snapdragon CPU, but more importantly, they don’t interfere with the powerful integrated NPU (it’s the same as in the top-tier Snapdragon chips), so they still fully qualify as PC Copilot+, only models in truly affordable territory (when Black Friday or something similar hits, we may see $500 price tags). And that should go a long way toward boosting sales, which, after all, have been predicted to really take off this year (and the rest of the decade).
The other sticking point in getting people to realize the benefits of an AI-focused laptop is a more complicated proposal, involving Microsoft beefing up the AI tricks built into Windows 11 and, in particular, the exclusive features from the PC Copilot+, naturally, like Recall.
That will be the first order of business: get Recall out of testing and working well so that the feature can shake off its controversial reputation (if that’s even possible, at this stage of the game). But it seems like a tall order for Microsoft to make its AI capabilities set have a real impact on public perception, at least in 2025, anyway.
The danger is that if this takes much longer to happen, the Copilot+ PC project will be saddled with a sense of confusion and futility around these devices, which will do the brand a disservice.
On a more positive note, it’s not that good things aren’t being done with this category of devices: they certainly are. As noted, Microsoft’s latest Surface devices seriously impressed us here at TechRadar, and an Asus Copilot+ PC was one of the most promising laptops we saw recently at CES 2025. But while these may be great machines in many ways, The idea of where AI fits in and why it is such a key aspect (when it really isn’t yet) remains a thorny issue.
