- MIT report finds 11.7% of current US workforce could be replaced by AI
- That doesn’t mean they are, but their skills can be replicated.
- MIT study is a great tool for policymakers to target specific populations
A new MIT study indicates that 11.7% of the US labor market could currently be replaced by artificial intelligence, representing a loss of $1.2 trillion in wages in sectors such as finance and healthcare.
The study bases its figures on the Iceberg Index, a job simulation tool built jointly between MIT and Oak Ridge National Laboratory, which analyzes 151 million American workers, 923 different occupations and more than 32,000 skills.
MIT divides the effects of AI on the American workforce into “visible” impacts, such as layoffs in the technology sector and role changes, and “hidden” impacts, such as changes in human resources, logistics, and administration.
AI Job Threats
Although “visible” job losses in technology and IT roles are largely concentrated in technology centers, “hidden” layoffs are much broader geographically, covering all 50 states, including rural areas, not just cities.
States such as Delaware, South Dakota, North Carolina and Utah show greater “hidden” exposure than California, which is home to a large concentration of technology companies.
MIT emphasized that the Iceberg Index is not a job loss prediction tool, but rather a tool that helps visualize what tasks AI can already handle. But it has still proven useful in policymaking: Tennessee cites Iceberg in its official AI Workforce Action Plan and Utah is preparing a similar measure.
North Carolina Senator DeAndrea Salvador also praised the index for its county-level detail (it covers about 3,000 U.S. counties), which is useful for mapping economic impacts at a local scale.
MIT explains that the research can be useful for policymakers to identify exposure hotspots to prioritize training, upskilling, and infrastructure investments. These places can also be good test sites before the United States commits to spending billions on workforce programs.
“The Iceberg Index provides measurable intelligence for critical workforce decisions: where to invest in training, what skills to prioritize, how to balance infrastructure with human capital,” the researchers concluded.
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