Discharge of responsibility: The analyst who wrote this piece has Strategy actions (MST)
The strategy (MSTR) could be on the way to potential inclusion of S&P 500 before June 20.
Currently, the company meets all eligibility requirements, except one: to achieve positive Net income GAAP during the last 12 months (the four most recent trimesters combined). To qualify, the profits of the first quarter of 2025 must be high enough to compensate for the losses of the three previous quarters, an objective that could be achieved thanks to the adoption (now mandatory) of the accounting rule of digital assets of the Board of financial accounting standards (FASB).
FASB rules change requires companies to recognize Bitcoin (BTC) holdings to fair value, which means that price profits will flow to the final result (as the price would decrease). Before this rule, corporate digital assets had to take into account the holdings at their weakest levels. The strategy, for example, in the fourth quarter of 2024 still valued its Bitcoin in less than $ 16,000 per Token, which led to a loss per deterioration of $ 1 billion even when Bitcoin closed the year by approximately $ 94,000.
Holy Grail
According to an analysis by Richard Hass in X, assuming that strategies of strategies do not change between now and March 31, Bitcoin must close the first quarter above $ 96,337 so that the company meets the positive profit requirement of 12 months . “Based on the profits of the fourth quarter of 2024 of -$ 671 million in net income MSTR requires $ 1,113b in the profits of the first quarter of 2025 to produce positive profits in the four previous quarters and be eligible for S&P 500,” he wrote. The BTC price required on March 31 to achieve this is $ 96,337 “.
If Bitcoin prices remain strong and MSTR continues to accumulate tokens, S&P 500 inclusion is available. Said Reference Analyst Mark Palmer:
“The adoption of MSTR of the FASB modified guide strengthens its case for inclusion S&P 500. Given its higher performance of each current index component for four years, the exclusion would be surprising.”
“While joining Nasdaq-00 was significant, the S&P 500 is the Holy Grail,” Palmer continued. “The inclusion would validate its Bitcoin strategy, since all funds on the S&P 500 index would contain Mstr actions, indirectly exposing the Bitcoin investors ”.
Discharge of responsibility: Richard Hass’s original X publication was made before the last purchase of Bitcoin strategy. COINDESK contacted an updated analysis, including Monday’s acquisition.
