The worst fears for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies, are becoming a reality, and that has increased the risk that Bitcoin (BTC) falls below $ 74,000 in a movement that could shake leisurely long bets.
On Sunday, Coendesk discussed the possibility of volatility pronounced downward in risk assets due to a possible unwilling of the treasure market bets, a dynamic that catalyzed the 2020 accident.
By observers, the unwilling of the so -called transport operations has begun, which involve coverage funds that exploit lower price discrepancies between treasure futures and values. That is evident from the increase of almost 70 basic points in the 10 -year Treasury performance. UU. To 4.5%. The 30 -year yield has seen a similar increase. Note that the yields move in the opposite direction of prices and generally fall during risk aversion as investors seek refuge in government bonds.
“Everything is now operating vertical with treasure yields at 30 years at the cusp of reaching the 5% mark. For some context, the yields of 10 years in the US. UU. They were at a minimum of 3.88% on Monday. The implosion of the base trade.
Low added that “everything goes sideways at this time”, since a strong increase in yields itself can have a high reach in markets, housing and economics.
Stock drops, BTC under pressure
Futures linked to the S&P 500, the Wall Street reference capital index, fell 2% in the midst of greater volatility in the treasure market. Bitcoin briefly fell below $ 75,000 early today and since then has been recovered to operate about $ 76,000, according to Coindesk data.
The movement index, which represents 30 -day price turbulence that implements options in the treasure market, increased to 140, the highest since October 2023, according to Data Source TradingView.
The worsening of the feeling of risk has increased the risk that BTC will fall to the range of $ 73.8K- $ 74.4K, where the holders of long bullish positions in the future perpetuals listed in the main exchanges face liquidation risks, according to the data tracked by the Hyblock capital analysis firm.
The liquidation represents the forced closure of positions by exchanges due to the scarcity of margin. Large long liquidations are often added to the volatility of the low price.
“We see long liquidation groups (where we estimate liquidations to activate) to 73800-74400, 69800-70000, 66100-67700. In particular, if we reach 70k, we probably go down at least $ 200 more, taking retail losses below 70k and the liquidity liquidity levels,” Hyblock told Coindesk.
On the upper side, Hyblock identified $ 80,900- $ 81,000, $ 85,500- $ 86,700 and $ 89,500- $ 92,600 as prominent areas for possible short liquidations.
