Daytime temperatures are between 3 and 5 °C above normal, while nighttime temperatures were between 1 and 3.5 °C above the climatological average for the period 1981-2010.
Northern Pakistan is experiencing below-average rainfall and snowfall this winter, raising concerns about accelerated melting of glaciers and possible glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF), the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) said in a statement on Monday.
According to the PMD, reduced rainfall and prolonged clear sky conditions have contributed to unusually stable atmospheric patterns and significantly elevated temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan during the first three weeks of February.
Daytime temperatures were recorded between 3 and 5 °C above normal, while night temperatures remained between 1 and 3.5 °C above the climatological average for the period 1981-2010. Gilgit and Bunji have experienced the greatest daytime warming, with Chilas and Bunji also showing notable increases in minimum temperatures, which reduced nighttime refreezing and accelerated melting of snow and glaciers in mid- and low-altitude regions, the statement added.
“Reduced nighttime cooling further enhances meltwater runoff into glacial lakes. Rapid melting increases water accumulation in both moraine- and glacier-dammed lakes, increasing the likelihood of GLOF events in downstream valleys,” the PMD reported.
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The department’s outlook for February to April 2026 predicts a high probability of above-normal temperatures across northern Pakistan, including Gilgit-Baltistan and Kashmir. The highest risk areas include Gilgit, Ghizar, Hunza, Bunji, Chilas and Astore.
Average temperature anomalies recorded between February 1 and 22 show that daytime temperatures rose to 4.7°C above normal in Gilgit, while nighttime anomalies reached 3.4°C in Chilas.
The PMD said it is closely monitoring temperature trends, glacier melt conditions and hydrometeorological parameters and will issue timely advisories to local authorities and communities.
