Norwegian officials are investigating a possible leak after big bets were placed on the Nobel Peace Prize outcome at Polymarket just hours before it was made public.
Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado, who won the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her role in the fight for democracy, saw bets on her victory increase in prediction markets hours before the official announcement, Bloomberg reported.
The increase was so notable that the official Polymarket account posted about it on social media.
A trader using the alias “dirtycup” placed a nearly $70,000 bet on Machado and pocketed about $30,000 in profit, without adding any other exposure. The account had been opened only a few weeks earlier and had no prior betting history, according to Polymarket data.
Two other accounts also focused solely on Machado and earned a combined $90,000, local Norwegian media Finansavisen reported.
“We take this very seriously,” said Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Norwegian Nobel Institute. “It appears we have fallen prey to a criminal actor who wants to make money from our information.”
Although the Nobel Peace Prize selection process is known for its secrecy, the committee would have made its decision days before. The committee is now reviewing the situation.
Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world events, from elections to celebrity gossip. Its founder, Shayne Coplan, became the world’s youngest billionaire after the company received a $2 billion investment from the owner of the New York Stock Exchange.
