Karachi:
India on Wednesday unilaterally suspended a key agreement to share water with Pakistan after blaming his neighbor for a mortal uproar in a picturesque tourist resort in the state of Jammu and Kashmir illegally occupied. Islamabad, however, warned that any Indian attempt to stop or divert water in the rivers that govern the IWT will be considered an “act of war” and responded with all conventional and unconventional means.
The IWT, which was negotiated by the World Bank in September 1960, determined the rights and obligations of Pakistan and India regarding the use of waters of the Indo River system. The agreement has resisted proof of time and has been acclaimed for a long time as a rare example of cooperation between the two archirransites.
In a highly provocative movement, the Indian Cabinet Security Committee decided on Wednesday to celebrate the Historical Treaty “in suspense” after the murder of 26 people, including tourists, in Pahalgam, the Anantnag district of Iiojk, on April 22. The measure was the most significant among a series of measures that the CCs announced to increase the pressure on Pakistan.
CCs’s decision could have serious consequences for Pakistan, an agricultural economy, where agriculture depends almost 90% on the Indo drainage system. The movement is calculated when Delhi believes that the shortage of water would affect crop performance, which in turn would create food insecurity and trigger social disturbances in Pakistan.
In the short term, India could stop sharing vital data on water in rivers that flow to Pakistan, which could have a devastating impact, especially during the next season of the monsoon, when flood fears increase the collector.
However, Islamabad dismissed the Indian move by saying that none of the parties could suspend or revoke the treaty negotiated by the World Bank. The Pakistan main security forum said Thursday that water is a vital national interest, a lifeguard for its 240 million people, and its availability will be safeguard at all costs.
“Any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan according to the Treaty of the Water of the Indo, and the usurpation of the rights of Low Ribrario will be considered as an act of war and responded with full force throughout the entire spectrum of the national power, it reads in a statement issued after the meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC).
Analysts believe that India could use the suspension of the treaty as an excuse to accelerate development in hydroelectric and storage projects along the western rivers, including Pakal Dul, Ratle, Kiru and Sawalkot, which he has not been able to build due to objections to his designs of Pakistan under the IWT.
However, defense and security analysts say that if India tries to build any installation to stop or divert Pakistan water, Islamabad will militarily eliminate that installation using its full combat power. Explaining the use of the NSC phrase “complete spectrum of national power,” said a defense analyst: “It means that Pakistan can go to any limit, including the use of nuclear weapons.”
Another analyst added that, since the NSC has categorically declared that water is “vital national interest” the country’s political and military leadership “will not even think for a minute and attacked the place that endangers the provision of water to Pakistan.”
Experts have called India’s decision to suspend the IWT as a political trick and an eyewash designed to placate the Indian public, stressing that Delhi cannot revoke or suspend unilaterally the agreement. “India or Pakistan cannot suspend or revoke the Waters of the Indo Unilaterally, and any change in the treaty would require mutual consent,” said former Pakistan commissioner for the waters of the Indo (PCIW) Jamaat Ali Shah to the Express Tax.
He said that the IWT is a permanent agreement and, therefore, India would have to bring Pakistan to confidence to suspend or revoke it. However, Indian officials say that if Pakistan approaches the World Bank, IWT’s guarantor, Delhi could say that “absence” is a temporary suspension, not a rape, and that cooperation can be resumed once Pakistan addresses the concerns of India.
