Will he stay or will he go? For Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, the latter seems imminent. Now Polymarket bettors are debating when exactly he will announce his resignation.
While Trudeau’s resignation contracts are nothing new, there are two with a low six-figure volume attached asking if he will leave in February or April, and another from December asking if opposition parties will trigger elections for the spring. .
Interest in the fate of the Canadian Prime Minister arose on Monday after two of Canada’s largest newspapers indicated that his resignation date would be on Monday or before Wednesday.
The Toronto Star says the resignation will come on Monday, while the Globe and Mail, which had it first, said the announcement would come before a Liberal Party national caucus meeting scheduled for Wednesday.
Polymarket punters are skeptical whether the announcement could come sooner. One contract, which is bet on Monday, has a volume of just over $45,000 and only gives a 24% chance that the week will begin with Trudeau’s signature.
Another, asking if the Prime Minister will resign on Wednesday, gives it a 72% chance, but that specific contract has a much smaller volume, around $10,000. Finally, a third, when asking if he will leave on Friday, the probability of that happening is 80%.
While the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail have sources saying a resignation is imminent, Reuters, which says it has spoken to someone different, says Trudeau hasn’t made a decision yet.
Angus Reid, a Canadian pollster, gives the Prime Minister an approval rating of 22%. Pollsters show that if an election were held today, Trudeau’s Liberals would be decimated, winning just 46 seats, while the Conservatives would get 225, giving them a majority in Canada’s Parliament.
Elsewhere on Polymarket, bettors are giving a 3% chance that Canada will join the United States as its 51st state in July, an idea that began as a joke on President-elect Donald Trump’s social media accounts.
