It turns out that Polymarket is a crystal ball, which can predict certain events with almost 90% precision, according to a dune board compiled by the data scientist based in New York City Alex McCullough.
McCullough studied the historical data of Polymarket and eliminated the markets with probabilities greater than 90% or less than 10% after the results were already known but are not yet resolved, to maintain the precise analysis, according to a summary of the Dunas board.
The Polymarket overestimately but constantly the probabilities of events in most ranges, potentially due to biases such as the acquiescence bias, the flock mentality, the low liquidity and the preference of the participants for high -risk bets, according to McCullough’s research.
The longest market markets, those that ask the traigators to consider a distant event, seem more precise because they include many results that are clearly unlikely, which facilitates predictions, McCullough explained in an interview with the Polymarket Oracle blog.
McCullough gives the example that Gavin Newsom becomes president (a question with $ 54 million in volume) during the latest elections to show that Polymeket markets in the longest long term often include obviously predictable results, such as Newsom clearly not winning, which increases the precision numbers of the platform for these long -term predictions.
On the contrary, face to face sports markets, which have less extreme results, such as long -term presidential candidates, and a more balanced distribution, have a clearer representation of predictive precision, McCullough found, showing notable improvements in precision as periodic spikes of periodic precision are developed and reveal.
Sports is a growing sector for Polymarket, with almost $ 4.5 billion in collective volume that seized the results of the NBA finals, MLB, Champions League and the Premier League, according to the Polymercos Portal analysis analysis.
It is likely that McCullough’s findings about the accuracy of the polymer are of interest in Ottawa, where Polymeket shows that the new leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, Mark Carney, now has a significant advantage over its rival conservative Pierre Poilievre, even more than what the aggregators of polls show.
