A leader on the Polymket decentralized betting platform, which is called Justwakingup, is committed to the Federal Reserve (Fed) will reduce interest rates by 50 basic points (BPS) Next week.
According to X Many Polymket Ballyes, Justwakingup is the most prolific merchant of the platform, with almost $ 400 million in total negotiation volume to date and profits greater than $ 2 million.
The operator has made a $ 15,000 bet that the Fed will reduce the rates by 50 BPS to 3.75% next week and is already showing a 3% gain in the position from writing. The merchant can earn approximately $ 226,000 if the Fed reduces rates by 5 bp.
However, the market is largely waiting for the Fed to deliver a 25 basic points cut next week, with the CME Fedwatch tool assigning a 91% probability to that result.
That said, the probabilities of a 50 BPS jumbo cut have increased to almost 10% after the disappointing job report on Friday, which reflects the growing expectations of more aggressive flexibility. Blackrock and Stanchart have asked for a 50 BPS cut.
In addition to market expectations, the US Labor Statistics Office reported on Tuesday that the economy added 911,000 less jobs in the 12 months that end in March 2025 of what was previously estimated, marking the largest registered annual revision registered.
Merchants are now observing the price index of the American producer on Wednesday and the data launches of the consumer price index on Thursday. The softest readings of what was expected could increase expectations for a 50 BPS cut, which can send bitcoin and higher stocks.
