Good morning, Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
A new report from CryptoQuant suggests that Strategy is quietly preparing for a multi-month BTC crash.
This thesis collides with the bets of the prediction markets that still believe that the company will behave as if it were 2021.
CryptoQuant highlights in its latest weekly report that Michael Saylor’s bitcoin treasury company is undergoing a structural shift from aggressive BTC accumulation to balance sheet protection, highlighted by a separate USD reserve and language that recognizes the option to hedge or even sell under stressed conditions.
Despite that change, the chances of Polymarket selling bitcoins remain marginal during the first quarter of the year, while expectations of small routine purchases remain high.
Additionally, Polymarket traders still view routine MSTR purchases as a high probability event, even as the scale of those purchases is reduced.
The market assigns only a 40% to 45% chance of purchasing above 1000 BTC, and the CryptoQuant report suggests that these cosmetic top-ups are becoming the norm. With a monthly accumulation lower than more than 90% compared to last year, merchants expect small purchases that preserve the brand without affecting regional supply or liquidity.
The strategy’s average buy size has fallen from 15,133 BTC in 2024 to 5,330 BTC this year, and with DAT inflows at their weakest since mid-June, bitcoin treasury firms are no longer absorbing significant supply in the current market.
Taken together, slower treasury purchases, weaker DAT inflows, and a more defensive MSTR suggest a different supply outlook for cryptocurrencies in 2026.
Whether BTC can resume its upward trend will depend on new sources of demand stepping in to replace the corporate buildup that defined the last cycle.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin recovered from its morning drop to $91,800 and stabilized near $93,000, but its two-day 10% rally is stalling below resistance at the 2025 yearly open around $93,400.
ETH: Ether rose back above $3,100 and hit a two-week high near $3,200 after a 3.5% gain on the day.
Gold: Gold fell slightly to just over $4,200 as traders remained cautious ahead of key US inflation data, although renewed tensions in Ukraine and a weaker dollar outlook could set the stage for a rally.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific stocks traded mixed on Thursday, although Japan’s Nikkei 225 and Topix rose about 1.3% after upbeat U.S. jobs data lifted Wall Street and strengthened hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Bitcoin Miners Hunted After Stealing $1 Billion in Electricity from Malaysia Grid (Bloomberg)
- US Debt Growth Will Drive Crypto Profits, BlackRock Says in AI Report (CoinDesk)
