This is a daily analysis of the Coendesk analyst and rented market technician Omkar Godbole.
Bitcoin It continues to gain ground, consisting of the reverse rupture of head and shoulders since the beginning of this week, which opened the door for a rally to $ 120,000.
Prices have crossed over the single mobile average of 50 days (SMA)A widely tracked moment indicator. In addition, Guppy’s multiple mobile average (GMMA) The indicator is causing a renewed cross. Taken together, these two developments can attract impulse hunters to the market, accelerating the price increase.
That said, there are at least three reasons to continue being cautious. Let’s take a look at those who individually.
BTC near Toro’s fatigue zone
BTC is closing in the Toro fatigue zone above $ 115,000.
Although past patterns do not guarantee future results, it is remarkable that since July, Bitcoin’s impulse has constantly weakened above the level of $ 115,000, as reflected in the long wishes in the last two monthly candles.
These long wicks indicate that although Bulls raised prices to new records greater than $ 124,000, a strong sales pressure forced the price at a level below $ 115,000, indicating a key resistance level and the possible hesitation between buyers.
Does the dollar index have a price of Fed rates cuts?
With the weakening of the US labor market. At a rapid rate, futures operators have a price at 70 basic points (BPS) of rates cuts for December 31. That is almost three rates cuts from 25 base points, starting on September 17. In addition, merchants have a price of a total of 125 bp of decrease in July 2026, which would take the reference interest rate to 3% to a range of 3.25% from the current range of 4.25-4.50.
Market participants seem sure that the Central Bank will look beyond sticky inflation, as highlighted by the consumer price index on Thursday, and will reduce rates to support the labor market and economic growth. These deceived expectations contrast with those of Fed’s companions, such as the European Central Bank. (ECB)that seem to have advanced from the tariffs. In other words, the differential rate favors the weakness of the USD.
However, the dollar index, which measures the Greenback value against the main fiduciary currencies, continues to float in the recent range of 97.00 to 98.00. The index has fallen only 0.20% to 97.55 this week despite the sharp increase in the Fed rate cut price.
This raises the question: Does the dollar already have a price on Fed rates cuts? If so, it could recover from here, limiting profits in assets called dollars such as BTC and Gold.
The table shows that the dollar sale has been without force since the index reached a minimum of 96.37 on July 1.
At the time of writing, the Bollinger bands, or the volatility bands placed two standard deviations above and below the 20 -day SMA of the index, they were at its tightest point since March 2024. The call squeezed means that a great movement could occur in any direction soon. An upward cannot be a good omen for BTC.
Generational alcista change in a 10 -year performance
The expectations of Fed Fed rates cuts have fueled the anticipation of a strong decrease in 10 -year reference treasure performance, which influences indebtedness costs for consumers, companies and governments equally. Therefore, a 10 -year performance slide would probably lead to greater risk take both in economy and financial markets.
However, long -term monthly graphics indicate a generational upward change in the impulse of yields, which suggests that the disadvantage could be limited. Therefore, the early flooding of money in more risky assets driven by the expectations of ultra casualties may not materialize. In other words, it is unlikely that ultra -casual interest rates return soon, which should keep the fixed income instruments for investors attractive.
The 10 -year yield has increased after the coronavirus pandemic, ending a subsequent four decades that began in 1981.
In addition, the more than 50, 100 and 200 months have been realized attentive one above the other. Such bullish configuration happened for the last time in the 1950s, marking the beginning of a three decades rally in the reference performance.
The same can be said of the performance of two years, which tends to be more sensitive to interest rates expectations.
Read more: Cryptographic experts retain the perspective of bitcoin bull
