Bitcoin
The Put-Call relationship has advanced to the multimillion-dollar options on Friday defeated in Deribit, but its traditional bassist interpretation may not tell the complete story this time.
The Open Interest Index of Put-Call refers to the relationship of active PUT contracts to active call contracts at a given time. An increase in the Put-Call relationship indicates a bias towards the sales options, offering protection against downward risks, and is interpreted as represents a feeling of bearish market.
However, the last peak is at least partly driven by “Puts insured in cash”, a BTC performance and accumulation strategy. The strategy implies selling (writing) sales options, an analogous movement to sell price drops insurance in exchange for an initial small premium.
At the same time, the writer maintains enough effective (in Stablecoins) on the sidelines to buy BTC as a must if prices decrease and the buyer decides to exercise the right to sell BTC at the highest predetermined price.
The premium collected by writing the POT option represents a performance with the BTC accumulation potential if the buyer Put exercises the option.
“The Put/Call ratio has increased to 0.72, compared to just 0.5 in 2024, indicating a growing interest in sales options, often structured as cash service posts,” said Lin Chen, head of business development, Asia in Decibit, to COINDESK.
Expiration options worth $ 14 billion
On Friday, at 08:00 UTC, a total of 141,271 BTC options contracts, with a value of more than $ 14 billion, which represents more than 40% of the total open interest will expire in Deribit, according to Data Fouring Deribit metrics.
Of the total owed for liquidation, 81,994 contracts are called, while the rest are sale options. In Delibit, an option contract represents a BTC.
Chen said that almost 20% of the so -called expirators are “in money (in profits)”, which means that a large number of market participants have strike calls that are below the current rate of the BTC spot market of $ 106,000.
“This suggests that call buyers have done this cycle well, aligning with persistent entries in ETF BTC,” Chen said.
Call holders in money (ITM) are already profitable and can choose to reserve profits or cover their positions as it approaches, which can increase market volatility. Alternatively, they could roll (change) the positions to the following expiration.
“As it is an important quarterly expiration, we expect greater volatility in the event,” Chen said.
In general terms, the majority of the so -called expiracy out of money or without value. In particular, the $ 300 call has the highest open interest, a sign that merchants probably expected a huge prices concentration in the first half.
The maximum pain for expiration is $ 102,000, a level at which options for options would suffer more.
Focus on a range of $ 100k- $ 105k
The latest market flows indicate expectations for round trip trade, with a slight bullish bias as we address the expiration.
According to data tracked by the main Crypto Market Wintermute market manufacturer, the latest flows are neutral biases, and merchants sell Straddles, a bearish volatility strategy, and writing calls around $ 105,000 and the short circuit is put at $ 100,000 for the expiration of June 27.
“For #BTC options, the flowing flows with Straddle/Calls that sell around 105k and put at 100k (June 27), pointing out the expectations of a strict price action at the expiration. Purchase of selective calls (108k – 112k, July/sep) adds an upholstered bullish inclination. IV.
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