Good morning Asia. This is what is making news in the markets:
Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top news during US time and an overview of market movements and analysis. For a detailed overview of the US markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.
QCP Capital says the market has moved beyond simply monitoring rates and has entered a full liquidity regime, where central bank balance sheets and cross-border capital flows generate risk more than the Fed’s next 25 basis points.
“Central bank purchases, de-dollarization flows, and institutional portfolio hedging have become the dominant forces driving gold higher, extending its relevance well beyond the traditional inflation hedging framework,” QCP Capital wrote, noting that during last weekend’s volatility, the Bitcoin-gold correlation has risen above 0.85, highlighting flows. synchronized between the two asset classes.
Prediction markets are coalescing around a steady but shallow Fed easing cycle that favors gold and digital assets over high beta risk.
At Kalshi, traders now assign a 76% probability of exactly three rate cuts in 2025, with a total easing of 75 bps, which matches JP Morgan’s baseline for a “mid-cycle, non-recessionary” trajectory. Comments this week from Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman calling for two additional cuts by the end of the year reinforced that trajectory.
Bitcoin trades within that same liquidity framework.
Kalshi traders see a 51% chance of it breaking above $130,000 this year, which would mark a new all-time high, 33% for $140,000 and just 21% for $150,000, with equal odds of touching $150,000 by mid-2026.
The market is positioning itself for a slow rally, not a speculative rally, as expectations of easing gradually filter into real yields and dollar liquidity. Glassnode data shows a dense cluster of buy positions at the $130,000 strike level, indicating that options flows could amplify near-term moves but also anchor resistance near that level.
Macroeconomic and on-chain signals point in the same direction: this is not an adrenaline-fueled bull market, but rather a slow, liquidity-fueled rally that can continue to push assets higher even without an aggressive turn from the Federal Reserve.
That is, if the market can survive another Truth Social post.
Market movement
BTC: Bitcoin is trading above $110,500, down 2%, pressured by renewed US-China trade tensions and global risk concerns, while analysts warn that breaching the $110,000 support could open the door to a drop towards $96,500-$100,000.
ETH: Ethereum is trading around $3,900, down around 4%, as investors reduce exposure amid macro uncertainty and concerns about falling cryptocurrencies, while some remain optimistic that ETH can “catch up” to gold over time.
Gold: Gold is trading near $4,141.81 an ounce as safe haven demand rises amid clashes between the US and China and rising expectations of US rate cuts.
Nikkei 225: Asia-Pacific markets rose on Thursday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 rising 0.95%, following gains on Wall Street driven by strong bank earnings.
Elsewhere in Crypto
- Eric Trump confirms plans to tokenize real estate with World Liberty Financial (CoinDesk)
- ‘The ship has sailed’: Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse says US will not return to hostile crypto climate under Gensler (The Block)
- Sony also wants its own crypto bank (Decrypt)
