By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
If macroeconomic concerns related to the Iran conflict were not enough, new research has revived what could be seen as an existential threat to bitcoin. quantum computing.
A Google paper suggests that breaking the Bitcoin blockchain cryptography with quantum computers could require fewer than 500,000 qubits, a fraction of previous estimates. A separate paper from Caltech and quantum startup Oratomic suggests that a system with around 26,000 qubits could break the encryption standard that protects the Bitcoin and Ethereum blockchains, in about 10 days. (“Qubits” are considered the units of processing power in quantum computers.)
A quantum hack would compromise the core principles of cryptocurrencies, namely “trusting the code” and the “hard money” value proposition, according to Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments. Around 25%-30% of the total bitcoin supply is already vulnerable to future quantum computing attacks.
While these attacks remain theoretical, according to Dragonfly managing partner Haseeb, they set a deadline: the network may need to upgrade to quantum-safe technology around 2029.
The leading cryptocurrency by market value has already retreated to $66,250 from the high of over $68,000 reached during Asian trading hours. This occurs when demand-side conditions appear weak and real or inflation-adjusted bond yields rise, discouraging investment in emerging and risky technologies like bitcoin.
While the overall market followed Bitcoin lower, one token stood out. QRL, the native cryptocurrency of the Quantum Resistance Ledger, is up 40% in 24 hours, reaching a high of $1.62. The market capitalization of the token was just over $127 million at the time of writing.
QRL describes itself as “an enterprise-grade, externally audited blockchain platform protected today from the quantum computing advancements of tomorrow.”
Unlike Bitcoin, which is based on elliptic curve cryptography that makes it vulnerable to quantum attacks, QRL uses a quantum-safe signature scheme called XMSS (eXtended Merkle Signature Scheme).
XMSS is a post-quantum cryptography algorithm recognized by standards bodies such as NIST for its resistance to quantum attacks. By design, XMSS generates unique signatures that are extremely difficult for quantum computers to decipher, making QRL theoretically “future-proof” against quantum threats.
The bottom line: Projects like QRL could attract more attention and potentially gain market value as concerns about quantum threats grow. Stay alert!
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- March 31: FTX Recovery Trust will distribute about $2.2 billion to creditors.
- Macro
- March 31, 9:00 am: US S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 Home Price Index YoY for January (previously: 1.4%)
- March 31, 9:45 am: March US Chicago PMI (previous 57.7)
- March 31, 10:00 am: US Conference Board Consumer Confidence for March (Previous 91.2)
- March 31, 10:00 am: US JOLTS job openings for February (was 6.946 million)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- Stake DAO CRV and BAL are voting their biweekly indicator to allocate CRV and BAL inflation among various liquidity pools. Voting ends March 31.
- SuperRare DAO is voting to consolidate its treasury management under the RareDAO Foundation by migrating remaining balances and officially concluding its legacy Grants and Network Pledge programs. Voting ends March 31.
- Aventus DAO is voting to simplify AVT issuances to a fixed daily fee, increase the node staking requirement, and replace current fees with an initial allocation of application chain tokens. Voting ends March 31.
- Unlock
- Token releases
- March 31 – edgeX (EDGE) token generation event will occur.
- March 31: WorldLand (WL) to list on KuCoin, Gate and others.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is down 0.82% as of 4pm ET Monday to $66,053.74 (24 hours: -2%)
- ETH is down 0.31% to $2,015.51 (24 hours: -1.84%)
- CoinDesk 20 is down 1.1% to 1,893.79 (24 hours: -2.15%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate Up 5 Basis Points to 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0018% (2.0093% annualized) on Binance
- DXY remains unchanged at 100.44
- Gold futures rise 0.9% to $4,598.60
- Silver futures rise 3.59% to $73.11
- The Nikkei 225 closed down 1.58% at 51,063.72
- Hang Seng closed up 0.15% at 24,788.14
- The FTSE rises 0.69% to 10,197.55
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.48% to 5,568.53
- DJIA closed Monday up 0.11% at 45,216.14
- The S&P 500 closed down 0.39% at 6,343.72
- Nasdaq Composite closed down 0.73% at 20,794.64
- S&P/TSX Composite closed unchanged at 31,934.94
- S&P 40 Latin America closed unchanged at 3,475.76
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 1.8 basis points to 4.324%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures up 0.85% to 6,442.50
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.8% to 23,323.75
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures rose 0.91% to 45,880.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.58% (-0.06%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03054 (0.66%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 996 EH/s
- Hash price (spot): $31.78
- Total fees: 2.5 BTC / $167,768
- CME Futures Open Interest: 102,450 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.6 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.46%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily swings in bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV.
- The index remains stuck in a sideways trend, pointing to market calm and low volatility.
- Traders should be on the lookout for a breakout against the backdrop of the latest quantum computing threat as it would signal panic and further price turbulence.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Monday at $160.79 (-0.22%), +0.47% at $161.54 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $89.91 (-4.00%), +0.12% to $90.02
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.15 (-4.72%), +1.52% at $17.41
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $33.27 (-3.37%), +0.69% at $33.50
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $7.80 (-2.74%), -0.13% at $7.79
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $11.83 (-7.58%), unchanged in the premarket
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $13.91 (-7.70%), +1.01% to $14.05
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.18 (-5.54%), +0.73% at $8.24
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $32.33 (-8.13%), +2.78% at $33.23
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.20 (-4.32%), +2.74% to $6.37
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $121.44 (-3.64%), +0.45% at $121.99
- Strive (ASST): closed at $9.37 (-4.92%), +1.18% to $9.48
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.01 (-0.50%), unchanged from the previous market
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.95 (-5.10%), +0.63% at $0.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.04 (-5.45%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $69.4 million
- Accumulated net flows: $55.98 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flows: $5 million
- Accumulated net flows: 11,560 million dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~5.7 million
Source: Farside Investors
