The Indian spy agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) orchestrated a covert assassination campaign, fueling a wave of targeted assassinations in Pakistan, according to a Washington Post report.
The report adds that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has positioned himself as the most assertive Indian leader since independence, is the driving force behind the nation’s actions beyond its borders.
These accusations highlight a new phase in the shadow conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.
Pattern of targeted killings
One of the most striking incidents was the murder of Amir Sarfaraz, better known as “Tamba”, in Lahore in April 2023.
Sarfaraz, a former prisoner implicated in the murder of an Indian intelligence officer in 2011, was shot dead by gunmen on a motorcycle. Pakistani authorities alleged that this attack has all the hallmarks of Indian involvement.
This case is part of a broader series of killings that Pakistani officials say began to escalate in 2021.
Modi’s modus operandi: links to Dubai and unregulated funds
Investigations reveal a sophisticated network allegedly orchestrated by RAW. According to Pakistani and Western intelligence officials, middlemen in Dubai act as coordinators, hiring local criminals or Afghan nationals and funneling payments through informal banking channels such as hawala.
Agents are believed to receive detailed instructions, often based on intelligence gathered through India’s extensive regional network.
According to the report, India’s murder-for-hire tactics used against dissidents in the West were initially developed and perfected in Pakistan before being employed in other countries.
India’s current national security adviser, Ajit Doval, said in 2014 that it was unrealistic to invade Pakistan but that India should use covert means to punish Pakistan for backing militant groups that attack Indian troops and civilians.
“We can defend ourselves by going to where the offense is coming from,” Doval told a college audience. “Pakistan’s vulnerability is many, many times greater than India’s.”
Rise of shadow operations
India’s assassination campaign is not new: In 2012, VK Singh, an Indian army general who led small-scale bombing operations in Pakistan, made an unsuccessful attempt to assassinate Kashmiri militant leader Syed Salahuddin, according to a former Indian official.
A former Pakistani official also suggested that India may have been involved in the 2013 shooting outside an Islamabad bakery that killed Nasiruddin Haqqani, a suspect in the Indian embassy bombing in Kabul.
However, it was not until 2021, two years after Modi’s re-election, marked by his tough stance towards Pakistan, that a series of targeted assassinations began.
Pakistani officials maintain that these operations undermine regional stability and erode trust between the two nations. Islamabad has raised the issue with global stakeholders, including the United States, urging an impartial investigation into the allegations.
Experts warn that India’s actions risk further destabilizing South Asia, where decades of animosity between India and Pakistan have already fueled armed conflicts, border skirmishes and proxy wars.
International accusations and regional implications
Around the same time, a US federal indictment revealed that Vikash Yadav, an officer with India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) in New Delhi, was behind an assassination attempt against Pannun, a Sikh separatist living in New York. . Yadav ordered his partner, businessman Nikhil Gupta, to hire a local assassin.
As with the operations in Pakistan, Yadav appeared under time pressure and suggested a broader operation aimed at eliminating multiple targets.
However, unlike events in Pakistan, US authorities quickly thwarted the plot after Gupta unknowingly approached a DEA informant for help connecting him to a hitman.
At the same time, Canadian officials uncovered an extensive Indian campaign against the Sikh diaspora, including surveillance, intimidation and even assassination attempts.
While criminal elements were involved, Indian diplomats in Canada were also involved in monitoring Sikh communities. Canadian officials referenced private communications and text messages between the diplomats, although the means by which these messages were obtained remain unclear.
Christopher Clary, a political science professor at the State University of New York, said RAW’s targeted assassination methods appeared similar to those of Israel’s Mossad, which has carried out successful assassinations in less developed countries but was also exposed. in a 2010 operation to kill a Hamas leader in Dubai, where officers were captured on hotel surveillance cameras.
The assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader in British Columbia, in June 2023 also sparked a diplomatic standoff between India and Canada.
While Indian officials have remained silent on the allegations, they maintain that their actions are aimed at countering terrorism and protecting national security.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s administration has increasingly resorted to covert measures to deal with perceived threats, a strategy that resonates with its domestic audience but raises concerns internationally.
Diplomatic stalemate
Despite sporadic attempts to engage in peace talks, relations between the two countries remain tense. Pakistan has highlighted India’s covert operations as part of a broader strategy to pressure Islamabad on issues such as Kashmir and countermilitancy efforts.
The revelations come as both nations face internal challenges: Pakistan with economic turmoil and India with increasing international scrutiny over its human rights record. However, India’s covert killings add a dangerous layer to an already volatile geopolitical equation.
