In today’s newsletter, Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner at Pantera Capital, shares his 2026 predictions on crypto, real-world asset tokenization, and artificial intelligence.
Programming Note: This will be our last newsletter of 2025. We hope to see you all in 2026! We’re also recruiting third-party contributions for next year, so please contact us if you’re a global thought leader with research to share.
A heartfelt thank you to all of this year’s contributors and to all of our subscribers for being part of our newsletter. We’re looking forward to 2026 – all signs indicate it’s going to be an exciting year in the digital asset space!
– Sara Morton
Crypto Outlook 2026: Real-World Assets, AI Security, and the Next Wave of IPOs
In 2025, a US administration appointed a cryptocurrency czar, created a strategic bitcoin reserve, formed a digital asset task force, and selected a new Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chairman who embraces innovation. In Congress, the GENIUS Act provided a clear regulatory framework for stablecoins, facilitating a $100 billion increase in demand for stablecoins.
Coinbase became the first cryptocurrency company added to the S&P 500, nine blockchain companies had an initial public offering, Robinhood launched tokenized stocks, and Vanguard lifted its ban on cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Until 2026.
Real-world assets (RWA) take off
As of December 15, 2025, the amount reached approximately 14% of the total value locked (TVL) at $16.6 billion of decentralized finance (DeFi TVL of $118 billion).
Predictions:
- Treasury bonds and private credit could at least double.
- Tokenized stocks and securities could grow even faster when the anticipated “Innovation Exemption” under the SEC’s “Project Crypto” is released.
- A surprise sector (carbon credits, mineral rights or energy projects) will catch fire. This sector is likely to be characterized by fragmented liquidity, global distribution, and a lack of standards, which blockchain-based markets will help solve.
AI revolutionizes chain security
Blockchain development and AI security tools are getting awfully good. Real-time fraud detection, Bitcoin transaction labeling with 95% accuracy, and instant smart contract debugging are here, detecting millions of blockchain vulnerabilities.
Prediction: Imagine larger shifts toward on-chain intelligence with deterministic, verifiable rules taking over smart contract-based governance. The app will scan code in near real-time, detect logic errors and exploits instantly, and provide immediate debugging feedback. The next big unicorn will be an innovative on-chain security company that will increase the security game 100x.
Prediction markets are takeover targets
With $28 billion traded in the first 10 months of 2025, prediction markets are consolidating around institutional infrastructure. We reached an ATH the week of October 20 of $2.3 billion.
Prediction: A billion-dollar-plus industry buyout that won’t involve Polymarket or Kalshi. Winning platforms will build hidden liquidity pathways with built-in market discovery intelligence that pinpoints where money is hiding and why. Forget shiny new buttons. It’s about effortlessly giving users superpowers: instant access to hidden groups, smarter routing, and predictive order flow.
Sports-focused platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel have gone mainstream and partnered with media outlets for real-time odds distribution. Newer companies like sports-focused NoVig will expand their presence vertically and new companies will emerge in APAC as it is a region to watch.
AI Becomes Your Personal Crypto Copilot
Consumer use of the AI platform will increase as systems mature, delivering hyper-personalized experiences that meet personalized expectations. Seamless integration makes advanced AI feel effortless, taking use from clunky to instantaneous.
Prediction: Platforms like Surf.ai will attract people from the crypto-curious to active traders in 2026 through advanced and intuitive AI models, proprietary crypto datasets, and multi-step workflow agents. I believe the sophisticated technology and accessible design positions Surf as the go-to crypto research tool, offering instant, on-chain backed market insights four times faster than generic options, and other such platforms are emerging as well.
Banking titans prepare: a stablecoin linked to the G7 is coming
A group of 10 major banks is in the early stages of exploring a consortium to issue stablecoins pegged to G7 currencies. Financial institutions are determining whether an industry-wide stablecoin would likely provide individuals and institutions with the benefits of digital currencies in a compliant and risk-managed manner. Meanwhile, a group of ten European banks is investigating the issuance of a stablecoin pegged to the euro.
Prediction: A consortium of big banks will launch its own stablecoin (whether these pilot projects come to fruition in 2026 or a different consortium does).
Privacy, payments, perpetual: the institutional trio
Privacy technology is booming in institutional use with the combination of transparency and secrecy of Zama, Canton and other protocols, although retail use is not finding traction or scalability. Stablecoins today amount to $310 billion, more than doubling their market capitalization from 2023, and have expanded for 25 consecutive months. Perpetual swap contracts already account for ~78% of crypto derivatives volume, and the gap continues to grow between felons and spot options.
Prediction: On privacy, the gap between institutional and retail will widen in 2026. Stablecoins will have a path to over $2 trillion in the long term, reaching at least $500 billion next year, and momentum for perpetual ones will continue into 2026.
Biggest Crypto IPO Year Ever
In 2025 there were already 335 IPOs in the US, in total, an increase of 55% compared to 2024; many of them were cryptocurrency-friendly, including nine blockchain IPOs. This includes crypto-native companies like Circle Internet Group with a launch date of May 27, 2025 and crypto-inclusive companies like special purpose acquisition companies (SPACS); Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp, for example, launched on December 2, 2025.
Prediction: 2026 will be an even more important year for public listings of digital assets. Coinbase says 76% of companies plan to add tokenized assets in 2026 and some are targeting more than 5% of their entire portfolio. Morpho serves as an example protocol with its TVL of $8.6 billion in November 2025.
The macro institutional vision
As of December 15, 17,867% of bitcoin holdings are now held by private and publicly traded companies, ETFs, and countries. By 2026, cryptocurrencies will be integrated into major platforms, improve financial pathways, and challenge current incumbents.
Prediction: 2026 won’t be about hype or memes. It will be about consolidation, real compliance, and institutional money movement, driven by public market liquidity.
Read the full article here
– Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner, Pantera Capital
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