Robinhood (HOOD) could earn more revenue from prediction markets than Coinbase (COIN) as users use fresh cash instead of selling their existing holdings, according to a survey from Japanese investment bank Mizuho (MFG).
“We expect a larger percentage revenue benefit for HOOD over COIN given that the survey showed that users of that platform are more inclined to fund the prediction markets portfolio with fresh money,” analysts Dan Dolev and Alexander Jenkins wrote in Tuesday’s report.
Analysts found that Robinhood and Coinbase users are much more likely than other investors to trade in prediction markets, with activity skewed toward economic and political events. The bank raised its revenue forecasts for Robinhood but lowered its Coinbase price target over fears that prediction market activity could cannibalize cryptocurrency trading.
Mizuho surveyed more than 230 Robinhood and Coinbase users and found that they are nine times more likely to participate in prediction markets than respondents who don’t use either app. Economic (81%) and political events (49%) were the most popular topics among respondents, closely followed by sports (47%), the bank said.
According to the report, the two platforms diverge in how users plan to fund those operations. About 50% of Robinhood respondents said they hope to use fresh money to trade prediction markets, while selling traditional wallets or cryptocurrencies ranked much lower (12% and 10%, respectively).
Coinbase users, by contrast, most frequently cited selling cryptocurrencies (37%) and adding new money (37%) as their main sources of funds, raising what analysts described as a risk that prediction markets could cannibalize existing revenue from cryptocurrency trading.
That funding mix leads to seeing greater medium-term revenue growth for Robinhood than for Coinbase, analysts said, even though COIN users expect to allocate a slightly larger proportion of their portfolio to prediction markets in about a year (15% vs. 13% for HOOD).
With Robinhood’s prediction market business on track for a run rate of around $300 million in the fourth quarter and about 2.5 billion contracts in October, Mizuho said he is raising his 2026-2027 revenue estimates for the company by 6% to 7%. The bank maintained its Outperform rating on the stock and its $172 price target.
Coinbase is expected to launch a prediction market product on Wednesday, which Mizuho sees as a positive step, but still not enough to turn its numbers around.
The bank said it has not incorporated any prediction market advantages into its Coinbase model, given the uncertainty around the design and economics of the final product, and the potential of selling cryptocurrencies to fund prediction operations. Mizuho also cited weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter trends and lower bitcoin. prices as he lowered his Coinbase price target to $280 from $320, and reiterated his neutral rating on the stock.
Robinhood rose 2.6% in early trading, to $122.53. Coinbase rose 2%, trading at $257.63.
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