Moore’s law, which bears the name of Gordon E. Moore, co -founder of Intel, states that the number of components in a single chip doubles at a minimum cost. It is not exactly a hard science, but its simple observation how quickly chips technology in 1965 advanced, has proven to be quite useful to predict where technology will be in the coming years.
In his last blog post, Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, creators of Chatgpt, has just declared that ‘Moore’s law changed the world 2 times every 18 months; This is incredibly stronger. ‘Altman referred to the massive price fall we have seen for the use of AI. For developers, this is measured in the cost of the token, and the cost of the token to use AI has been falling about 10 times every 12 months. Between the beginning of 2023 and mid -2014, the price per Token to use chatgpt has fallen around 150x.
AGI comes
Technically, Altman was wrong writing “18 months” instead of “approximately two years.” The 18 -month figure is a common erroneous appointment since there was a separate prediction by Moore’s colleague, Intel executive David House, that Moore’s law would mean that the chip yield would double every 18 months, without a Increase in energy consumption. Then, a forgiveness.
However, Altman’s point is that the fall in the cost of the use of AI is another indicator that artificial general intelligence (AGI) is “appearing.” AGI is an artificial intelligence that is at the same time or smarter than human intelligence, and developing it is the reason why there are companies like Openai because Agi’s benefits could really be changing the world, despite the dangers we continue to receive He warned about.
It is worth reading the entire publication of Sam Altman’s blog because he reads a lot as a warning that the future will arrive before what we think and that we really begin to need to prepare for how the world will change. Altman’s predictions are certainly amazing. His three key predictions for the immediate future are:
- Scientific progress is probably much faster than it is today
- The price of many goods will eventually fall dramatically
- The price of luxury goods and some inherently limited resources such as land can increase even more dramatically
Altman does not predict that these changes occur in 2025, but since he has already registered that humanity will achieve AGI this year, the changes seem to be around the corner.
His message is also that we have some difficult decisions regarding AGI and how freely it should be used, because a possible future, “we can see that authoritarian governments use AI to control their population through mass surveillance and loss of autonomy . “
In Altman’s vision, ensuring that AGI’s benefits are widely distributed is essential to prevent this from happening.
It ends with a fairly surprising prediction: “Anyone in 2035 should be able to mark the intellectual capacity equivalent to all in 2025; Everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct, however, they can imagine. “
It is difficult to know how to process the amplitude of Altman’s vision at this time. Companies like OpenAi commit to develop AGI, but the inherent dangers to whom this technology controls are something that Altman urges us to begin to consider and speak at this time.
