Bitcoin It is approximately 4% higher than a week ago, good news for digital asset but bad news for the economy.
The recent negative tone of the economic data points last week increased the expectations that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates on Wednesday, which makes the most risky assets, such as actions and Bitcoin more attractive.
Let us recapitulate the data that support that thesis.
The most important, the figures of the US CPI. UU., Came out on Thursday. The headline rate was slightly higher than expected, sign inflation could be more sticky than expected.
Before that, we had Tuesday’s reviews to work data. The world’s largest economy created almost 1 million less jobs than those reported in the year that ended March, the largest review in the country’s history.
The figures followed the monthly job report so seen, which was published the previous Friday. The United States added only 22,000 jobs in August, with unemployment increasing to 4.3%, the labor statistics office said. Initial unemployment claims increased 27,000 to 263,000, the highest since October 2021.
Higher inflation and less jobs are not excellent for the economy of the United States, so it is not surprising that the word “stagflation” begins to re -enter macroeconomic comments.
In this context, Bitcoin, considered a risk asset of Wall Street, continued a higher rectification, exceeding $ 116,000 on Friday and almost closing the CME futures gap to 117,300 from August.
It is not a surprise, since merchants are also doing the greatest risk assets: actions. Simply take a look at the S&P 500 index, which closed in a record of the second day with the hope of a fees.
So how should merchants think of the BTC price table?
For this enthusiast of the table, the price action remains constructive, with higher minimums that are formed from the bottom of September of $ 107,500. The 200 -day mobile average has increased to $ 102,083, while the short -term holder made the price made, often used as support in the upward markets, increased to a record of $ 109,668.
Stocks linked to Bitcoin: a mixed bag
However, the positive price action of Bitcoin did not help the strategy (Mstr)The largest of Bitcoin Treasury companies, whose shares were on the week. His rivals worked better: Mara Holdings (Mara) 7% and XXI (CEP) 4%.
Strategy (Mstr) He has had a lower Bitcoin yield throughout the year and continues to pass under his 200 -day mobile average, currently $ 355. At the end of Thursday of $ 326, he is testing a key long -term support level seen in September 2024 and April 2025.
The company’s MNAV cousin has compressed less than 1.5x when it counts the slope convertible debt and preferred shares, or approximately 1.3 times based solely on the capital value.
The issuance of preferred shares remains silenced, with only $ 17 million used in Strk and Strf this week, which means that most of the broadcast in money still flows through common actions. According to the company, the options now appear and are quoted by the four perpetual preferred actions, a development that could provide additional performance on the dividend.
Catalizers for cryptography stocks?
The Fedwatch of the CME tool shows that merchants expect a cut of interest rates from the USA 25 base points in September and have a price in a total of three rates cuts at the end of the year.
That is a feeling of risk of sign could lean towards growth and actions linked to cryptographic, underlined by the treasure of the United States to 10 years that broke down briefly below 4% this week.
Even so, the dollar index (DXY) It continues to have several years support, a possible turning point that is worth seeing.
