bitcoin and silver are sending markedly different signals to markets as the year ends, with volatility data showing traders actively repricing one asset while leaving the other stuck in neutral.
Over the past month, bitcoin’s 30-day annualized volatility has steadily compressed to the mid-40s, reflecting a market that remains range-bound and lacking conviction. At 45%, the 30-day realized volatility is well below its 365-day average of 48%, according to TradingView data.
That may seem big compared to a blue-chip stock, but it’s nothing compared to silver, the semi-precious industrial metal.
Silver’s observed volatility has risen to the mid-50s, driven by a strong rally, rising physical premiums, and tension in global bullion markets. Realized or historical volatility represents the actual price swings of an asset over a specific period.
The volatility divergence is consistent with the price performance of the two assets. While silver is up over 151% this year, BTC is down almost 7%.
The enormous increase in the price of silver is explained by the imbalance between supply and demand. While demand for solar panels, electric vehicles, electronics and battery technologies has increased sharply, supply has failed to keep pace.
Additionally, China’s decision to impose silver export licenses from January 1 has tightened physical supply expectations, while prices in Shanghai and Dubai have traded between $10 and $14 above the COMEX.
The London futures curve has fallen into a sharp retracement, a sign of immediate shortages even as futures markets show limited tension, analysts say.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is trading almost 30% below the all-time high of over $126,000 reached in October. Traders largely blame declining demand for spot ETFs and losing steam in the DAT narrative for the current price decline coupled with the October 10 crash that automatically deleveraged winning bets, denting investor sentiment.
In a recent note, QCP Capital said that bitcoin’s recent price action reflects mechanical forces rather than a change in sentiment. The firm wrote that holiday-reduced liquidity has amplified short-term moves, while last week’s large options expiry reset traders’ positioning.
QCP added that approximately 50% of open interest was reduced after expiration, leaving aside significant capital and reinforcing the lack of directional conviction.
Prediction markets reflect this division. Linked to late January silver price levels, Polymarket shows strong confidence that prices will remain elevated, with limited belief in a sharp collapse, but only modest probabilities are assigned to short-term breakout highs.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin markets overwhelmingly value a continuation of the current range. Traders assign a roughly 70% chance of bitcoin holding above $86,000 through early January, while the odds of a break above $92,000 fall below 25%.
