By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless otherwise noted)
As the new quarter progresses, the cryptocurrency market is sending a subtle but important signal: traders seem a little more cautious about bitcoin. than ether (ETH).
This can be seen in the options market, where more experienced traders and institutions come to hedge risks or generate additional returns. Think of options as a kind of insurance. Traders can buy protection against price declines (sells) or bet on price increases (buys), depending on their prospects.
Right now, a key metric, called risk reversal, is negative for both bitcoin and ether over different time frames. In simple terms, that means that put options, or downside protection, are more expensive than bullish bets. When traders are willing to pay more for puts, it usually indicates lingering fears of a price drop. That’s perfectly normal, considering bitcoin and ether’s brutal downtrend since October.
But here’s where it gets interesting: that caution is strongest for bitcoin. Bitcoin puts are more expensive than ether on all time frames, suggesting traders are more concerned about BTC’s downside risk.
The difference becomes even clearer when you zoom out further. Longer-term ether options, such as those expiring next March, are only slightly bearish, while the equivalent bitcoin options carry a much steeper premium for downside protection.
In short, the market is betting that ether will be relatively resilient. This would indicate a bullish trend reversal in the ether-bitcoin ratio, which has been in a downtrend since August (see technical analysis section).
Ether is up 5% in the last 24 hours, outperforming bitcoin XRP (XRP), solana (SOL), and the CoinDesk 20 index. Several smaller tokens associated with quantum computing-resistant technology are up 20% or more.
Analysts said that a firm break in BTC above its 50-day moving average of $68,680 will likely strengthen bullish momentum.
In traditional markets, the 10-year US Treasury yield fell for the fourth day in a row, while futures linked to the Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose almost 0.5%. Together, these factors point to risky sentiment going forward. Stay alert
Read more: For an analysis of current activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to watch
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Crypto
- Macro
- April 1, 8:15 am: US ADP employment change for March (previous 63K)
- April 1, 10:00 am: March US ISM Manufacturing PMI (previous 52.4)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
symbolic events
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
- Governance votes and calls
- April 1: HTX will host a live X Spaces session with World Mobile.
- April 1: KuCoin will host a live X Spaces session with Katana.
- Unlock
- April 1: to unlock 1.10% of its circulating supply worth $38.29 million.
- Token releases
- April 1: Orexn (OXN) enters a phased exchange listing period following the token generation event.
Conferences
For a more complete list of this week’s events, check out CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead.”
Market movements
- BTC is up 0.61% since 4 pm ET on Wednesday to $68,622.64 (24 hours: +3.34%)
- ETH is up 1.47% to $2,136.90 (24 hours: +5.27%)
- CoinDesk 20 rose 0.62% to 1,968.28 (24 hours: +3.62%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate remains unchanged at 2.76%
- BTC funding rate is 0.0033% (3.5193% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is down 0.37% at 99.59
- Gold futures rise 1.5% to $4,748.80
- Silver futures down 0.69% to $74.40
- The Nikkei 225 closed up 5.24% at 53,739.68
- Hang Seng closed up 2.04% at 25,294.03
- The FTSE rises 1.63% to 10,342.45
- The Euro Stoxx 50 rises 1.75% to 5,667.09
- DJIA closed Tuesday up 2.49% at 46,341.51
- The S&P 500 closed up 2.91% at 6,528.52
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 3.83% at 21,590.63
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 2.61% at 32,768.04
- The S&P 40 Latin America closed with an increase of 4.26% to 3,623.86
- The 10-year US Treasury rate fell 3.2 basis points to 4.279%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures up 0.33% to 6,592.25
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures rise 0.48% to 24,030.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average index futures rise 0.36% to 46,750.00
Bitcoin Statistics
- BTC dominance: 58.72% (-0.04%)
- Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.03111 (0.89%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,004 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $32.37
- Total fees: 2.47 BTC / $166,441
- CME Futures Open Interest: 104,900 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 14.5 oz.
- BTC market capitalization against gold: 4.58%
Technical analysis
- The chart shows daily swings in the ether-bitcoin ratio in candlestick format.
- The ratio has been trending downward since August, showing ether underperforming relative to bitcoin. This bearish trend is represented by the yellow line connecting the steady decline for seven months.
- The outlook would turn bullish if the ratio breaks this trend line. Such a move would confirm investors’ renewed preference for ether, as the options market suggests.
Crypto Stocks
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Tuesday at $174.61 (+8.60%), +1.80% to $177.75 in premarket
- Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $95.41 (+6.12%), +2.69% to $97.98
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $18.45 (+7.58%), +1.94% at $18.81
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $35.73 (+7.39%), +0.95% to $36.07
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.16 (+4.62%), +1.35% at $8.27
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.36 (+4.48%), +2.35% at $12.65
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.96 (+7.55%), -0.40% to $14.90
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.51 (+4.03%), +2.12% at $8.69
- CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $34.82 (+7.70%), +1.81% at $35.45
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.50 (+4.84%), -0.92% to $6.44
Crypto treasury companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $124.80 (+2.77%), +1.48% at $126.65
- Strive (ASST): Closed at $10.02 (+6.94%), +1.90% at $10.21
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.45 (+7.32%), +2.02% to $6.58
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.99 (+3.90%), +6.49% at $1.05
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.16 (+11.54%)
ETF Flows
BTC Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $117.5 million
- Accumulated net flows: 56,090 million dollars
- Total BTC holdings ~1.29 million
ETH Spot ETF
- Daily net flow: $31.2 million
- Accumulated net flows: 11,590 million dollars
- Total ETH holdings ~5.70 million
Source: Farside Investors
while you were sleeping
Trump says Iran war could end in ‘two weeks’, with or without deal (euronews): Trump, who will address the nation on Wednesday night, said the war in Iran could end in two or three weeks. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war against Tehran will continue.
Iran Fires Missiles Across the Middle East as Trump Signals Exit (Bloomberg) – Iran fired missiles across the Middle East as Israel and the United States kept up their bombing raids on the Islamic Republic, even as Trump fueled market optimism by signaling he is preparing to end the war.
UAE wants to force open Hormuz and is willing to join the fight (The Wall Street Journal): The United Arab Emirates is preparing to help the US and other allies open the Strait of Hormuz by force, Arab officials said, a move that would make them the first Persian Gulf country to join the war.
Crypto Asset Manager CoinShares to List on Nasdaq After $1.2 Billion SPAC Deal (CoinDesk) – CoinShares, a leading European digital asset manager with over $6 billion under management, will begin trading on the Nasdaq Stock Market under the symbol CSHR.
