Investment bank Standard Chartered lowered its short-term and full-year price forecasts for major cryptocurrencies, citing continued downside risk as exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a challenging macro backdrop put pressure on the market.
The bank now expects bitcoin will fall to around $50,000 in the coming months, with ether potentially bottoming near $1,400.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $67,900 at the time of this publication. Ether, the second largest, was trading around $1,980.
Geoff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered, said the sell-off of recent weeks could extend as ETF investors, many of them at losses, are more likely to reduce exposure than to “buy the dip”.
Once prices establish a bottom, Kendrick said, he expects a recovery through the rest of 2026. The analyst lowered his year-end target for bitcoin to $150,000 to $100,000, ether to $4,000 from $7,500, solana. at $135 from $250, BNB Chain to $1,050 from $1,755 and at $18 from $100.
The cryptocurrency market has weakened sharply in early 2026, with major assets like bitcoin falling significantly from late-2025 highs and the total market capitalization falling sharply in recent weeks. Bitcoin has fallen almost 23% since the beginning of the year.
The recession has been marked by increased volatility, large liquidations of leveraged positions and broad risk-averse sentiment, which has caused cryptocurrencies to correlate more closely with weakening stock markets.
Macroeconomic pressures, such as concerns about global growth and the outlook for interest rates, have pushed investors toward traditional havens like gold, while stagnant regulatory clarity, particularly in the United States, and liquidity strains at some institutions have weighed on sentiment. Combined, these forces have led to reduced trading revenue for companies exposed to cryptocurrencies and bearish sentiment in many tokens.
According to Kendrick, bitcoin ETF holdings have declined by nearly 100,000 BTC since their October 2025 peak. The average purchase price of an ETF is about $90,000, leaving many investors with unrealized losses of about 25%.
Macroeconomic conditions are also weighing on confidence. Kendrick noted that while U.S. economic data shows signs of weakening, markets do not expect interest rate cuts ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first Federal Open Market Committee meeting as Fed chair in mid-June, limiting near-term support for risk assets.
Despite the expected capitulation, the bank said the current reduction is less severe than previous cycles. At its worst, in early February, bitcoin was down about 50% from its October 2025 all-time high, and about half of the supply continued to generate profits, declines that are steep but not as extreme as in previous crises.
Crucially, this cycle has not seen the collapse of major crypto platforms, unlike the failures of Terra/Luna and FTX in 2022. Kendrick said that suggests the asset class is maturing and more resilient.
The analyst left his longer-term projections unchanged, maintaining end-2030 targets of $500,000 for bitcoin and $40,000 for ether, arguing that usage trends and structural drivers remain intact.
The analyst previously lowered his bullish forecasts on bitcoin in December.
Read more: Standard Chartered throws in the towel on bullish Bitcoin forecast
