Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif speaks with US President Donald Trump at the White House as Field Marshal Asim Munir looks on. PHOTO: EXPRESS
ISLAMABAD:
A year after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House, Pakistan appears to be among the quiet beneficiaries of a significant shift in Washington’s strategic thinking.
The newly released US National Defense Strategy (NDS) 2026 marks a shift away from Washington’s decades-long stance of viewing China as the top global threat, a recalibration that Pakistani officials and analysts say eases Islamabad’s foreign policy challenges.
When Trump took office for his second term, there was visible unrest in Pakistan. With US forces already withdrawn from Afghanistan and Trump’s “America First” doctrine back in play, many in Islamabad feared new marginalization.
Prevailing assessments suggested that Washington would further deepen strategic ties with India, intensify pressure on Pakistan and adopt a more confrontational attitude toward China, a scenario that would have complicated Pakistan’s delicate regional balancing act.
However, the events of the past year have unfolded differently. Pakistan has seen an improvement in engagement with the Trump administration, while relations between India and the United States have shown signs of strain.
The publication of the Defense Strategy 2026 has further reinforced this trend, offering what officials describe as a “strategic respite” for Islamabad.
The core of the new policy is a redefinition of the United States’ threat perception. Unlike previous strategies, notably the 2022 defense strategy issued under the Biden administration, which explicitly called China the “most important strategic competitor,” the 2026 document avoids framing Beijing as an existential enemy.
The strategy makes it clear that Washington does not seek confrontation with China nor does it seek to weaken or isolate it.
He said the United States does not seek to dominate, humiliate or strangle China, but rather “to ensure that neither China nor anyone else can dominate us or our allies.”
Instead, the United States wants “a decent peace, on terms favorable to Americans, but one that China can also accept and live under,” the plan said, adding that the United States would therefore deter China with “force, not confrontation.”
For Pakistan, this change is particularly significant. Islamabad has consistently tried to avoid being drawn into great power rivalries, especially the competition between the United States and China, given its close strategic partnership with Beijing.
Historically, the United States’ confrontational stance toward China has put Pakistan in a difficult position, forcing it to navigate between its relationship with Washington and its long-standing ties with Beijing.
‘Diplomatic space’
A senior Pakistani official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the new American approach makes Pakistan’s foreign policy “less stressful.”
“If the United States no longer seeks confrontation with China, it reduces pressure on countries like Pakistan that have strong relations with Beijing. This approach gives us greater diplomatic space,” the official said.
“To me, the US strategy is to bide its time to devise ways to counter China and retain its supremacy. Trump is playing smart. China understands the game,” said Abdul Basit, a former diplomat who served as Pakistan’s ambassador to India and Germany.
“So, for now, we would not see the two countries escalating bilateral tensions to an irremediable point. This is good for Pakistan while it lasts,” he told The Express PAkGazette.
Another notable aspect of the 2026 defense strategy is what it does not mention. India, frequently highlighted in previous US policy documents, is completely absent from the 24-page strategy. The document also makes no reference to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a grouping that includes the United States, India, Japan and Australia, and which had featured prominently in previous Indo-Pacific frameworks.
This omission has raised eyebrows in Islamabad. Under the Biden administration, India was repeatedly described as an important defense partner and a key pillar of the US strategy in Asia. India’s absence from the latest strategy suggests a recalibration of Washington’s regional priorities.
Pakistani officials see this as another positive development. An unnamed senior official said the lack of focus on India reduces the regional imbalance.
“The fact that India does not figure even once in the defense strategy is important. It indicates that Washington no longer sees India as a central element of its China policy. It is a welcome development for Pakistan,” the official said.
Analysts believe this shift is directly related to Washington’s softer attitude toward China. Now that Beijing is no longer the main threat, the strategic utility of India, previously positioned as a counterweight, appears diminished.
Despite these positive signs, observers warn against assuming permanence. Trump’s approach to foreign policy is widely seen as transactional and personality-driven, raising questions about the durability of the change once his term ends.
Security analysts point out that US strategic doctrine has historically fluctuated with changes in administrations. A future White House could return to a more traditional posture that once again positions China as the central adversary, potentially reviving previous alliance-based containment strategies.
“This strategy reflects Trump’s worldview rather than a permanent transformation of US grand strategy,” another official said. “Pakistan should benefit from the current environment but remain cautious on long-term assumptions.”
For now, however, the US Defense Strategy 2026 appears to align with Pakistan’s longstanding preference for strategic neutrality amid great power competition. By de-emphasizing confrontation with China and avoiding explicit alignment with India, Washington has inadvertently made Pakistan’s regional diplomacy more manageable, at least under Trump.
“It remains imperative that we continue to foster our strategic partnership with China. The United States is likely to experience many internal and external transitions as the termination becomes intense and pressures mount everywhere,” Ambassador Basit concluded.
Emerging diplomatic role
Jalil Abbas Jilani, former foreign secretary, who also served as foreign minister during an interim government, said that although the US defense strategy announced in 2022 explicitly mentioned China as the main threat, the latest strategy does not include China in the same category.
However, the new strategy still includes China as the main competitor. It also emphasizes defending US interests in the Indo-Pacific region and deterring China through force, not confrontation.
He noted that it requires maintaining the military balance in the region to avoid China’s dominance over the United States or its allies.
He further noted that interestingly, while in the past senior US officials have consistently expressed concerns over the growing relations between Pakistan and China, CPEC and related issues, such concerns have somewhat diminished over the last year.
“Obviously, we should be very pleased with this change. This will allow Pakistan to pursue its strategic interests vis-à-vis China while building a strong partnership with the United States.”
“In the context of China, pressure on Pakistan appears to be easing due to the Trump administration’s desire to reduce tensions with China. There is also an understanding in the United States that Pakistan could be a useful partner in defusing tensions not only with China but also with Iran and the Middle East.”
“As you know, Pakistan-US relations in the past have been negatively affected by four factors: Pakistan’s relationship with China, the development of US-India relations since the mid-1990s, Afghanistan and the nuclear factor.”
He observed that the deepening of the Indo-US strategic partnership – marked by a growing convergence of interests vis-à-vis China, the Indo-US civil nuclear deal, logistics and intelligence-sharing frameworks like BECA and COMCASA, India’s designation as a network security provider and its joining groups like QUAD and I2U2 – has generated huge insecurity not only in Pakistan but also in smaller South Asian states.
However, under the Trump administration, there appears to be a slight shift away from India. The US administration has openly stated that the “strategic altruism” that India enjoyed for long will be replaced by “strategic reciprocity”.
“Many in the United States have questioned India’s credibility as a partner due to its opposition to US-sponsored resolutions against Russia following its invasion of Ukraine, non-recognition of the US role in reducing tension between Pakistan and India in May last year and tariff issues and India’s ability to act as a net security provider in the region,” he added.
