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Team USA finds itself in a precarious position after its stunning 8-6 loss to Team Italy in its final pool game Tuesday at Daikin Park: It no longer controls its own destiny in the World Baseball Classic.
Italy improved to 3-0 with the victory, while the United States fell to 3-1. While Italy and the United States have three wins, Team Mexico is 2-1 and will play Italy on Wednesday.
If Italy beats Mexico, they would improve to 4-0 in pool play, and Mexico would fall to 2-2. In that scenario, Team USA would be the runner-up in Group B and advance with Italy to the quarterfinal round.
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American right fielder Aaron Judge (99) returns to the dugout after striking out against Italy to end the ninth inning at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, on March 10, 2026. (Thomas Shea/Image Images)
However, if Mexico defeats Italy on Wednesday, the United States, Italy and Mexico would finish 3-1. In that scenario, Team USA could end up being the odd one out. If Mexico defeats Italy, they are guaranteed to advance, leaving the last spot between Team USA and Italy.
The initial tiebreaker is based on runs allowed divided by defensive outs recorded in games between the three teams. Not all games are nine innings in the World Baseball Classic, as there are mercy rules.
If a team wins by 15 runs after five innings or 10 runs after seven innings, the game ends. The mercy rule is only in effect for group games and quarterfinal games.
TEAM USA’S WORLD BASEBALL CLASSIC HOPES TAKE A BIG BLOW WITH ITALY UPSET
Italian pitcher Greg Weissert, right, celebrates with catcher JJ D’Orazio (28) after defeating the United States in a game at the World Baseball Classic, Tuesday, March 10, 2026, in Houston. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
On the other hand, extra innings games can also change the calculation.
Because Mexico has allowed fewer runs than Italy in pool play, they are guaranteed to advance if they beat Italy on Wednesday.
If Mexico wins, the only way the United States could advance would be if Italy gave up more than five runs in its loss, assuming the game lasts only nine innings.
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American center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (4) hits a home run against Italy in the seventh inning of a World Baseball Classic game in Houston, Texas, on March 10, 2026. (Ashley Landis/AP Photo)
Italy can lose and move on if it allows four or fewer runs to Mexico in the loss.
Mexico and Italy play at 7 pm ET on FS1, and Team USA will be watching with bated breath.
